948 FXUS65 KREV 102101 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 201 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak slider system will bring light rain showers through Thursday mainly in areas near the Sierra, with a bit of high elevation snow possible. Northeast to east winds are expected for the next few days, with periods of stronger gusts over the Sierra ridges. Dry conditions will prevail Friday into next week, with freezing temperatures possible for lower elevations this weekend. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday night... A weak slider-type disturbance moving southward across California is currently spreading clouds across much of eastern CA and western NV mainly from Reno-Fallon northward. Later today through this evening, increasing upslope flow along with forcing associated with this disturbance will lead to isolated-scattered shower development. The best chances are expected near the Sierra from Tahoe southward, with a few showers also possible along the US-395/I-580 urban corridor of far western NV and eastward into Lyon, Churchill and Mineral counties. Later tonight, the shower potential looks more limited to areas south of US-50 where the upslope flow is likely to persist longer. Precip amounts are expected to be sparse, with maybe around 0.10" liquid for northern Mono County (around 1" of snow above 8500-9000 feet) and lesser amounts elsewhere. Another weak disturbance could produce another round of light showers Thursday afternoon-evening, mainly limited to Alpine, Mono and far western Mineral counties. Brief periods of graupel/snow pellets could also accompany the showers near the Sierra each day, down to about 7000 feet. Elsewhere on Thursday, dry conditions will prevail with northeast surface flow and temperatures on the cool side, with highs mainly in the lower 60s for lower elevations and 50s near the Sierra. Clearing skies Thursday night may bring freezing temperatures to some valleys of northeast CA, although just enough east flow near and above the surface should limit the extent and duration of the coldest temperatures. East flow will increase across the Sierra Thursday night into Friday, with gusts of 35-45 mph expected. This east flow will continue through Friday night, although wind speeds are likely to decrease. For lower elevations, northeast-east winds up to 10 mph will keep Friday's highs below average, although not as cool as Thursday. .LONG TERM...Saturday and beyond... Models and ensembles continue to show an omega block developing along the west coast for the weekend. High pressure will set up along 135-west with a low lingering off the southern California coast. One concern for the weekend is the potential for gusty east to northeast winds over the Sierra Ridges and in the Tahoe Basin. This will be driven by the flow between eastern Pacific high and low of the southern California coast. Gusts could get up near 50 mph along the ridges and gusts 20-30 mph in the Tahoe Basin pushing increased waves into the west shore. Boats moored may at risk for breaking loose or swamping. Overnight lows will dip into the 20s and 30s (teens and single digits in the Sierra valleys), perhaps even close to freezing on the valley floor around Reno for early Monday morning. Afternoon highs will remain near seasonal levels of mid 60s to lower 70s for the valleys, with 50s and 60s for the Sierra. By the start of next week the high pressure system should push into the Pacific Northwest while the low drifts into southern Nevada and Arizona. This will likely keep conditions dry, but there is potential for the gusty east winds on ridge tops to persist into the first half of next week. Brong && .AVIATION... East-northeast flow will take place over the next few days as the longwave pattern over the western U.S. continues to be amplified. This setup will allow a couple of cold fronts to make their way down from the Pacific Northwest region increasing winds, cloud cover, and chances for precipitation. Expect northeast winds during the afternoon/evening hours of today and Thursday with possible gusts in the 15-20 kt range for most area terminals. This will contribute to pockets of turbulence with ridgetop winds gusting up to 30-40 kts. Increased cloud cover along with chances for precipitation can also be anticipated for the Sierra terminals due to upslope flow along the Sierra Front. Any rain showers that do form in the Sierra will be light with not much accumulation. It is possible to see snow pellet showers mainly for KMMH, especially on Thursday where upslope flow will be slightly more enhanced. By the beginning of next week, a more tranquil weather pattern with lighter winds will take place as high pressure builds in from the northwest. -LaGuardia && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno