053 FXUS65 KREV 101009 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 309 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A couple sliders will move through today and Thursday with a few showers, cooler temperatures and north winds. Temperatures will then begin a slow warming trend into the weekend with light northeast winds, but gusty over the Sierra ridges. && .DISCUSSION... Changes for this forecast cycle mainly involved increasing cloud cover along the Sierra as flow upslopes along the eastern Sierra. Also, some precipitation chances were increased mainly along the higher Sierra south of Highway 50 along the surface boundary and due to prolonged upslope flow. The longwave pattern remains highly amplified off the Pacific coast allowing slider-type systems to drop into the region out of the Pacific Northwest. One such system will move through today bringing low chances of showers along the surface boundary as well as behind the boundary as flow remains upslope along the Sierra Front. Moisture is projected to be fairly anemic, but appears to be enough to produce a hundredth or so in lower elevations and maybe up to a tenth of an inch of liquid for the higher terrain. Best chances of precipitation remain towards Mono County where flow will remain upslope for an extended period of time.Thursday evening showers could be little heavier than this evening. Light snow with up to an inch accumulation will be possible for the higher Sierra south of Highway 50. Elsewhere, no accumulation is expected, but higher passes could see flurries or a brief, light snow. The only other concern would be any pellet showers that occur above 7500 feet or so; roadways could become briefly slick. Aside from very light precipitation, expect winds to shift more easterly for the Sierra favoring gusty ridge winds along the Sierra crest. This round of easterly flow behind the front doesn't appear to be as robust as earlier this week, but gusts could be around 35-40 mph especially over Thursday night and Friday nights. Daytime valley breezes will be much lighter generally around 20 mph out of the north. Boyd && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday... Very limited changes were made to the inherited long term forecast this morning. The pattern is evolving toward northerly flow aloft with low to mid level east-northeast flow through the weekend. This is due to the presence of a ridge well off the coast and a trough to the east. Between the two we should see near to slightly below normal temperatures. and relatively light winds at the surface Saturday and Sunday...especially Sunday. The operational models are trying to roll the ridge over by early next week into the Pacific Northwest. This would mean a continued light easterly flow regime in the lower levels for our area...but with no substantive cold air advection in the lower levels high temperatures should begin to rise to slightly above normal. Morning lows will drop to near or below normal owing to light winds and a dry airmass in place. && .AVIATION... Expect some rain showers for Sierra and Sierra Front terminals today and Thursday as a couple of weak waves move through the region. It's possible for pellet showers to occur today for Sierra terminals which could briefly cause slick conditions. Accumulations will be light with just a few hundredths possible. KMMH will have the best chances of rain/pellet showers today and especially Thursday evening when precipitation chances increase. Otherwise, mountain obscurations and some light-moderate turbulence over the Sierra will be likely. Valley winds will generally be out of the north with day time gusts up to 20kts. Lighter winds are forecast by Sunday. Boyd && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno