483 FXUS62 KRAH 111132 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 730 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Michael's remnants will move quickly northeast across central NC Thursday. The low pressure will then track off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 410 AM Thursday... ...The axis of heaviest and rain strongest wind gusts associated with Michael has shifted north slightly with the most significant impacts expected late this morning into early this evening... The center of Tropical Storm Michael was located northeast of Macon Georgia early this morning with the system continuing to accelerate northeastward. The leading band of showers/storms is poised to move into the southern Piedmont before daybreak. While the rain shield associated with the core of Michael will move into the western Piedmont and Sandhills between 6am and 10am and then into the remainder of the Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain between 10 am and 2pm. The track of the circulation center has shifted north and its forward motion across central NC is faster than last night. With this in mind, the region of strongest winds and heaviest rain has shifted north a bit as well. The biggest change with this package will be a notable increase in forecast wind gusts across the northern Piedmont, primarily owing to a northerly jet and increased mixing on the back side of Michael's circulation. These wind gusts will be occurring to the northwest and west of the circulation center, likely in and near an arc of very heavy rain in a semi-circle across the northern and northwestern half of the circulation center that moves across the Triad between 16 and 20Z, the Triangle 18 to 22Z and the northern Coastal Plain between 20 to 00Z. Wind gusts on the order 35 to 40 MPH look like a good bet with the potential for a few gusts approaching 50 MPH. Elsewhere in central NC wind gusts will generally range between 25 and 35 MPH with a few stronger gusts. These magnitudes will be sufficient to bring some trees down and produce some power outages. Given the upper air pattern, the precipitation distribution will follow a left of track pattern, favoring the heaviest rain across the northwest and northern Piedmont. WPC guidance indicates an axis of heavy rain on the order of 3 to 6 inches is expected from High Rock Lake and Lexington northeast across the Triad and into the Kerr Lake area. Rainfall amounts will be a notably less closer and to the south of the circulation center across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Given the forecast amounts and short duration, most of central NC will be in a moderate to high risk of excessive rain and the flash flood watch will remain in effect through 5 am Friday. Its worth noting that the impacts from Michael may be more significant than those of Florence across the Triad and Triangle areas. The period of heavy rain will be more concentrated and could contribute to flash flooding, especially in urban areas and creeks susceptible to urban runoff issues such as Crabtree and Buffalo. In addition, wind gusts on the back side of the storm may this afternoon may be stronger than those experience during Florence. The heavy rain will quickly end from southeast to northeast during the evening, with mainly dry conditions expected after midnight. Skies will clear from the west to east, with just some high clouds expected by daybreak. Highs today will range in the mid 70s northwest to lower 80s in the east. Lows tonight will range in the lower 50s northwest to around 60 in the east. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Thursday... Friday will see Tropical Storm Michael head off to the northeast and offshore very early Friday morning. In its wake, winds will turn to northerly at the surface and cool continental high pressure will start to build in from the west. Skies will clear fairly abruptly behind the system so expect plenty of sunshine on Friday. Temperatures will begin to cool off quickly and afternoon highs will only reach the low to mid 70s which is much closer to normal for this time of year. Lows Friday night will fall further than we have seen in a while with parts of the Triad and VA border counties possibly not making it to 50 degrees. Low 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM Thursday... Temperatures cool even more to start the weekend as a small shortwave passes north of the area with the high moving over West Virginia. Still cool and dry with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. In fact, the forecasted high of 68 at Greensboro on Saturday has not been seen since late April. Saturday will be the cooler of the two days this weekend with Sunday warming up as the high migrates eastward and out to sea. Southeasterly return flow will help warm temps up a couple degrees for Sunday afternoon. Overall a very dry and pleasant weekend. Early next week, a wave coming from the southwest will ride up a cold front to our west and eventually develop a surface low along the Appalachians and continue to the northeast. The associated cold front will remain hung up to the west and could remain there through Monday. Will bring in slight chance of pops Monday but will wait till Tuesday to ramp up to chance as the front comes through. Wednesday remains uncertain as the GFS lingers with the timing of the frontal exit and keeps precipitation chances around for Wednesday whereas the ECMWF clears out the front much quicker. Temperatures during this time period will fluctuate with Monday being the warmest day with southern locales in the low 80s but cooling off again fro Tuesday and Wednesday with highs generally in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 AM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to continue overnight in advance of Tropical Storm Michael, along with some patchy light rain showers. Heavy rain and wind associated with Tropical Storm Michael will spread into central NC generally from 12- 15Z in a west/southwest to east/northeast fashion, with generally IFR cigs expected, with sub-VFR visbys. Meanwhile, winds will strengthen with sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts, gusting to 30 to 40 kts at times, especially in the heavier bands. It also appears there will be a period of LLWS at the Piedmont TAF sites, occurring at KINT, KGSO and KRDU late afternoon/evening today as a strong 50 to 60kt NWLY low-level jet develops as Michael pushes off to the NE. Rain will rapidly taper off and skies will clear out from SW to NE between 00 and 06z Friday, though winds may remain gusty for a longer time into the night. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate for much of the Fri through Mon period, with high pressure extending in from the NW, although sub-VFR stratus/fog is possible late Sat night into early Sun as a warm frontal zone briefly pushes northward into the region. A little rain is possible late Sun into Mon ahead of a cold front that will move in from the W late Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078- 083>086-088-089. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD