985 FXUS62 KRAH 110748 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Michael's remnants will move quickly northeast across central NC Thursday. The low pressure will then track off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 937 PM Wednesday... As of 930 PM, the center of Michael was located over southwest GA and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to continue to progress quickly to the NE, reaching central SC by late tonight, then tracking NE across central NC Thursday. It will be late tonight and early Thursday before the bands of heavy rain and strong/gusty wind begin to affect our SW Piedmont. Before the actual remnants arrive Thursday, there will continue to be a deep SE feed of moisture off the Atlantic and Gulf Stream across the region. PW's at record levels for early October in the 2.25 to 2.4 inch range. Therefore, locally heavy rain can be expected with any showers, but especially where banding of showers and training of cells develop. This is more likely west and south of Raleigh through late tonight. We will have the highest POP SW (increasing to categorical by 12z). Elsewhere, we will generally carry chance POP's, becoming categorical Thursday. Strong and gusty winds will accompany the rain bands (strongest in the Tropical Storm Warning region, and especially enhanced as the circulation passes over the region Thursday. The low-level shear and 0-1 km hodographs will also increase toward daybreak in the far SW, with most of central NC expected to see this increase quickly on Thursday morning. We do expect a least some tornado threat over our region Thursday. The main threat would be on the right front or NE quadrant of the remnant circulation's track. Even a bit of heating will be possible out ahead of the system late morning into the early afternoon, placing the entire eastern and southern part of our region in the risk. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Thursday... Friday will see Tropical Storm Michael head off to the northeast and offshore very early Friday morning. In its wake, winds will turn to northerly at the surface and cool continental high pressure will start to build in from the west. Skies will clear fairly abruptly behind the system so expect plenty of sunshine on Friday. Temperatures will begin to cool off quickly and afternoon highs will only reach the low to mid 70s which is much closer to normal for this time of year. Lows Friday night will fall further than we have seen in a while with parts of the Triad and VA border counties possibly not making it to 50 degrees. Low 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM Thursday... Temperatures cool even more to start the weekend as a small shortwave passes north of the area with the high moving over West Virginia. Still cool and dry with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. In fact, the forecasted high of 68 at Greensboro on Saturday has not been seen since late April. Saturday will be the cooler of the two days this weekend with Sunday warming up as the high migrates eastward and out to sea. Southeasterly return flow will help warm temps up a couple degrees for Sunday afternoon. Overall a very dry and pleasant weekend. Early next week, a wave coming from the southwest will ride up a cold front to our west and eventually develop a surface low along the Appalachians and continue to the northeast. The associated cold front will remain hung up to the west and could remain there through Monday. Will bring in slight chance of pops Monday but will wait till Tuesday to ramp up to chance as the front comes through. Wednesday remains uncertain as the GFS lingers with the timing of the frontal exit and keeps precipitation chances around for Wednesday whereas the ECMWF clears out the front much quicker. Temperatures during this time period will fluctuate with Monday being the warmest day with southern locales in the low 80s but cooling off again fro Tuesday and Wednesday with highs generally in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 AM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to continue overnight in advance of Tropical Storm Michael, along with some patchy light rain showers. Heavy rain and wind associated with Tropical Storm Michael will spread into central NC generally from 12- 15Z in a west/southwest to east/northeast fashion, with generally IFR cigs expected, with sub-VFR visbys. Meanwhile, winds will strengthen with sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts, gusting to 30 to 40 kts at times, especially in the heavier bands. It also appears there will be a period of LLWS at the Piedmont TAF sites, occurring at KINT, KGSO and KRDU late afternoon/evening today as a strong 50 to 60kt NWLY low-level jet develops as Michael pushes off to the NE. Rain will rapidly taper off and skies will clear out from SW to NE between 00 to 06z Friday, though winds may remain gusty for a longer time. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate for much of the Fri through Mon period, with high pressure extending in from the NW, although sub-VFR stratus/fog is possible late Sat night into early Sun as a warm frontal zone briefly pushes northward into the region. A little rain is possible late Sun into Mon ahead of a cold front that will move in from the W late Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Hartfield NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/CBL