492 FXUS62 KRAH 110138 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 937 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Michael's remnants will move quickly northeast across central NC Thursday. The low pressure will then track off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 937 PM Wednesday... As of 930 PM, the center of Michael was located over southwest GA and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to continue to progress quickly to the NE, reaching central SC by late tonight, then tracking NE across central NC Thursday. It will be late tonight and early Thursday before the bands of heavy rain and strong/gusty wind begin to affect our SW Piedmont. Before the actual remnants arrive Thursday, there will continue to be a deep SE feed of moisture off the Atlantic and Gulf Stream across the region. PW's at record levels for early October in the 2.25 to 2.4 inch range. Therefore, locally heavy rain can be expected with any showers, but especially where banding of showers and training of cells develop. This is more likely west and south of Raleigh through late tonight. We will have the highest POP SW (increasing to categorical by 12z). Elsewhere, we will generally carry chance POP's, becoming categorical Thursday. Strong and gusty winds will accompany the rain bands (strongest in the Tropical Storm Warning region, and especially enhanced as the circulation passes over the region Thursday. The low-level shear and 0-1 km hodographs will also increase toward daybreak in the far SW, with most of central NC expected to see this increase quickly on Thursday morning. We do expect a least some tornado threat over our region Thursday. The main threat would be on the right front or NE quadrant of the remnant circulation's track. Even a bit of heating will be possible out ahead of the system late morning into the early afternoon, placing the entire eastern and southern part of our region in the risk. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM Wednesday... ...The most significant impacts associated with Michael are expected across central NC Thursday morning into early Thursday evening... The rain shield with Michael will move NE through the central Carolinas Thu. While the surface wind field will have weakened from its current hurricane status, this is a powerful storm with a lot of energy, and the storm's swift movement will allow far too little time for significant dissipation of this energy. Winds just aloft around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused, particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence, the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any major track change (path or speed). The flash flood watch will remain as is. Today's rain will certainly help moisten the soils, especially across the S and W halves of the forecast area, although we did not see quite the rates that were initially feared. Concern remains for what some convection-allowing models depict as an intense rain band over the N circumference of the circulation center, which could generate heavy totals on the NW side of the storm as such a band pivots counterclockwise and leads to a longer duration of heavier rain over the Piedmont. This potential has led to a slight NW shift in the expected corridor of heaviest rain, although we still expect nearly 3" over SE sections ranging to 4-6.5" over much of the Piedmont. (A lowering of rain totals over the SE would certainly be helpful to those still recovering from Florence.) Following the official track and supporting model guidance, have shown a quick decrease in rain chances from WSW to ENE as the storm pulls away late Thu night. Breezy, gusty winds from the NNW will hold areawide through much of the night. Expect highs of 74-81 Thu, followed by lows of 55-64 Thu night. -GIH && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1235 PM Wednesday... Based on the official forecast track, TS Michael will be tracking quickly NE away from NC Fri morning. Models indicate dry air moving into the area, so expect plentiful sunshine, albeit with potential stray gusty winds in its wake. Michael will leave a broad trailing frontal zone off the SE coast, with a more substantial cold front sitting just to our NW, the coldest/densest air staying temporarily blocked by the mountains. So while a dip in temps is expected Fri, readings will be just slightly below normal initially. A shortwave trough moving through the N-central CONUS early Fri will progress eastward across the Northeast states late Fri into early Sat, allowing a cool surface high centered over the central CONUS to shift eastward and push the cold front SE/SSE into our area, initiating a further drop in thicknesses by Sat morning. We should see a few clouds to start the weekend, including potential terrain- enhanced mid clouds early Sat morning in the Piedmont. Thicknesses suggest highs about two categories below normal Sat. We'll start to see a more active pattern into early next week, with greater-than-usual day-to-day variability. The surface high will shift E off the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast Sun, sending a coastal inverted trough northwestward into the Carolinas. This will cause a rebounding of thicknesses and increased cloud cover for the latter half of the weekend. With the increased moist upglide along the northward-shifting frontal zone, will bring in small chance pops (20-30%) Sun night into early Mon, with a rebound in temps Mon as brief warm air advection returns. Another broad but amplified shortwave trough swinging through the central CONUS early Mon will swing by to our N through early Tue, taking a cold front through the area, and expect good chances of showers and perhaps a storm late Mon through Mon night. The front will stall out just to our south for Tue/Wed, with cool high pressure building in from the W and NW. Expect quiet and dry weather to move in Tue, with increasing clouds Wed as the front begins to buckle back north into the area. -GIH && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 825 PM Wednesday... A weakening band of light rain showers will lift north through the area through 03z. A brief period of MVFR restrictions will be possible in the heavier showers. After 03z, expect a lull in rain showers through 12z. However, ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR or IFR areawide overnight, potentially to LIFR at KINT and KGSO. Ceilings will remain IFR to MVFR on Thursday with the heavy rain bands associated with Michael's remnants expected to spread SW to NE across the area between 12 to 15Z at KINT and KGSO, 15 to 18z at KRDU and KFAY, and 18 to 20z at KRWI. IFR restrictions will occur in the heaviest rain bands. Meanwhile, winds will strengthen with sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts, gusting to 30 to 40 kts at times, especially in the heavier bands. It also appears there will be a period of LLWS at all TAF sites, occurring at KINT, KGSO and KRDU Thursday evening as a strong 50 to 60kt NWLY low-level jet develops as Michael pushes off to the NE, while KFAY and KRWI will see a period of LLWS during the afternoon from a strong 50 kt SWLY LLJ. Looking beyond 00z Friday: Rain will rapidly taper off and skies will clear out from SW to NE between 00 to 06z Friday. Winds may remain gusty for a longer time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to dominate for much of the Fri through Mon period, with high pressure extending in from the NW, although sub-VFR stratus/fog is possible late Sat night into early Sun as a warm frontal zone briefly pushes northward into the region. A little rain is possible late Sun into Mon ahead of a cold front that will move in from the W late Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Hartfield NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...CBL/Hartfield