952 FXUS62 KRAH 101441 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1040 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Michael is forecast to making landfall over the Florida Panhandle today. The storm will then move quickly northeast over the Southeast states and Carolinas tonight through Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1040 AM Wednesday... Small adjustments made to pops and temps today. High rain chances will continue as the broad area of strong water vapor transport pivots northward through the area. Most areas will see rainfall of one half to one inch, with spotty 1-2" totals, and minor street flooding is certainly possible. The source region for this moisture stream indicates very efficient rainfall production, with an LCL-to- 0C depth of 4.3 km on the 12z CHS sounding. The heaviest precip looks to be across our southern half and western half. This rain will unfortunately set the table for Michael by elevating water levels and soaking soils, potentially contributing to weakened tree root structures, making them vulnerable to falling when Michael's wind field arrives. Expect highs today from the mid 70s to low 80s NE. -GIH Earlier discussion from 355 AM: Today... Enhanced southerly mid level flow in between the mid level high off the southeast U.S. coast and Hurricane Michael, which is expected to make landfall today across the FL Panhandle, will help to pull higher moisture content air northward and into central NC today. PW's are expected to surge into the 2-2.5 inch range, with an associated band of tropical showers and isolated storms moving northward across the area today. Given the individual cells within the band of showers/storms should have a decent motion today think the flooding threat should remain rather isolated (minor flooding/maybe isolated flash flooding) despite the high PW's. High temps today are expected to range from the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s in our far east. Tonight: A general lull is expected in the activity late this evening into early Thursday morning. However, lingering showers will remain possible as Hurricane Michael approaches from the south- southwest tonight. However, the bulk of the rain associated Hurricane Michael is generally expected to be after daybreak on Thursday, along with any possible tornado threat across southeast/eastern NC. Low temps should be very warm for mid October, in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Wednesday... ...The most significant impacts associated with Michael are expected across central NC late Thursday morning into Thursday evening... After a lull in showers before daybreak, the rain shield associated with tropical cyclone Michael will quickly spread northeast into central NC after daybreak on Thursday and then spread across the area during the morning and afternoon. Given the upper air pattern with the approaching mid/upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley and the commencement of extratropical transition, the precipitation distribution will follow a left of track pattern, favoring the heaviest rain across the northern Piedmont. WPC guidance indicates an axis of heavy rain on the order of 3 to 6 inches is expected across much of central NC with the heaviest rain expected from Albemarle to Siler City to Durham to Henderson where amounts of 5 to possibly 7 inches are expected. Rainfall amounts will be a little less closer to the storm center across the southern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Given the forecast amounts and short duration, no need to make any adjustments to the current flash flood watch thats in effect across the entire area from 6 am Thursday through 5 am Friday. The widespread heavy rain should be over by the pre dawn hours on Friday. Based on the latest official NHC track, sustained speeds are likely to be in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected across the Southern Piedmont, southern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Lighter winds are expected to the west and north with sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. These winds will likely result in some downed trees and power lines, mainly to the southeast of Laurinburg, Lillington, and Wilson. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for a portion of the southern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. With clouds, winds, and a tropical airmass, expected little diurnal change in temperatures from Wednesday night into late Thursday although some drier and cooler air is expected to arrive on the back side of Michael late Thursday night. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... As Michael exits to the northeast, fall will quickly filter in behind the system as northerly winds prevail and temperatures quickly drop to levels we have not seen in some time. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. This is actually pretty close to normal for this time of year with those values only slightly below. The weekend will feature more of the same as transient continental high pressure crosses just north of the state. Saturday will be colder than Sunday as northerly flow turns to southerly as the high moves east. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday with mainly low to mid 70s for Sunday. Both days are expected to be dry. An upper trough will move east across the Midwest for early next week as a surface low in eastern Canada drags a cold front across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and then eastward towards NC. Models are slightly off on timing and QPF values but suffice to say rain chances will increase early next week. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s on Monday ahead of the front but it is expected to cross the area on Tuesday and therefore a big temperature gradient is expected with the Triad in the mid to upper 60s and the southeastern counties in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 710 AM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: An easterly low level flow will become more southeast to southerly today, allowing moisture to increase across the area. This will result in cigs dropping into the MVFR/IFR range this morning, with possibly some LIFR cigs at KGSO/KINT this morning. In addition a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area from SW to NE today, generally in the 15Z to 21Z time frame, followed by a lull in the precip before the main shield of precip moves into the area on Thursday morning associated with Hurricane Michael. However, cigs will likely fall into the IFR to LIFR range late this evening into early Friday morning. Outlook: Adverse aviation conditions will likely persist Friday morning as moisture related to the remnants of Hurricane Michael begin to impact the area. Expect variable CIGS/VSBYs/Wind speed and direction through this period. Weather conditions will improve significantly and dramatically on Friday and likely continue into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD NEAR TERM...Hartfield/BSD SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/JM