477 FXUS62 KRAH 100803 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 403 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Michael is forecast to making landfall over the Florida Panhandle today. The storm will then move quickly northeast over the Southeast states and Carolinas tonight through Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM Wednesday... Today: Enhanced southerly mid level flow in between the mid level high off the southeast U.S. coast and Hurricane Michael, which is expected to make landfall today across the FL Panhandle, will help to pull higher moisture content air northward and into central NC today. PW's are expected to surge into the 2-2.5 inch range, with an associated band of tropical showers and isolated storms moving northward across the area today. Given the individual cells within the band of showers/storms should have a decent motion today think the flooding threat should remain rather isolated (minor flooding/maybe isolated flash flooding) despite the high PW's. High temps today are expected to range from the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s in our far east. Tonight: A general lull is expected in the activity late this evening into early Thursday morning. However, lingering showers will remain possible as Hurricane Michael approaches from the south- southwest tonight. However, the bulk of the rain associated Hurricane Michael is generally expected to be after daybreak on Thursday, along with any possible tornado threat across southeast/eastern NC. Low temps should be very warm for mid October, in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... A short relative lull is expected Wed evening between this rain band and the rain shield directly associated with Michael. Heavy rain is expected to shift into our SW sections prior to daybreak Thu, then overspread the area through Thu evening before tapering down late Thu night. General model consensus indicates rainfall potential of 3- 6" over the forecast area during this time, and will go ahead with a flash flood watch for the entire area, starting at 6 am Thu (although this may need to be started earlier in the far SW), running until 5 am Fri. Based on the latest track and wind decay, sustained speeds are likely to be in the 15-25 mph range over the W (W of highway 1), with gusts of 25-30, while sustained speeds in the 20-30 mph range and gusts of 30-40 mph are expected from highway 1 E. We may need a tropical storm warning at some point across the SE sections, and this will be evaluated over the next day. Expect lows of 69-74 Wed night, highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Thu, and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s Thu night as the post- Michael cooler air begins to roll in. -GIH && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... As Michael exits to the northeast, fall will quickly filter in behind the system as northerly winds prevail and temperatures quickly drop to levels we have not seen in some time. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. This is actually pretty close to normal for this time of year with those values only slightly below. The weekend will feature more of the same as transient continental high pressure crosses just north of the state. Saturday will be colder than Sunday as northerly flow turns to southerly as the high moves east. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday with mainly low to mid 70s for Sunday. Both days are expected to be dry. An upper trough will move east across the Midwest for early next week as a surface low in eastern Canada drags a cold front across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and then eastward towards NC. Models are slightly off on timing and QPF values but suffice to say rain chances will increase early next week. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s on Monday ahead of the front but it is expected to cross the area on Tuesday and therefore a big temperature gradient is expected with the Triad in the mid to upper 60s and the southeastern counties in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: An easterly low level flow will become more southeast to southerly today, allowing moisture to increase across the area. This will result in cigs dropping into the MVFR range this morning, with possibly some IFR cigs at KGSO/KINT this morning. In addition a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area from SW to NE today, generally in the 15Z to 21Z time frame, followed by a lull in the precip before the main shield of precip moves into the area on Thursday morning associated with Hurricane Michael. However, cigs will likely fall into the IFR to LIFR range late this evening into early Friday morning. Outlook: Adverse aviation conditions will likely persist tonight through Friday morning as moisture related to the remnants of Hurricane Michael begin to impact the area. Expect variable CIGS/VSBYs/Wind speed and direction through this period. Weather conditions will improve significantly and dramatically on Friday and likely continue into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/JJM