671 FXUS62 KRAH 100727 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 327 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Michael is forecast to making landfall over the Florida Panhandle today. The storm will then move quickly northeast over the Southeast states and Carolinas tonight through Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 920 PM Tuesday... Fueled by the SELY onshore flow, latest NWS radar still shows some isolated showers speckled across NC. Will leave in some isolated pops this evening into the overnight hours, however most areas should remain dry through a good part of the night. The exception will be across the far southwestern zones, where we see an uptick in higher rain chances with the initial surge of deeper +2.0" moisture transport into the area as the mid/upper level ridge off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast shifts farther offshore. This surge will continue to spread north and east through the day on Wednesday, producing a quarter to half inch of rainfall across the area. Increasing cloud cover will limit fog potential. Muggy lows ranging from mid/upper 60s north to lower 70s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall over the FL Panhandle or Big Bend on Wed, then accelerate to the NE, crossing the Carolinas Thu/Thu night, as it gets picked up by the mean SW steering flow. The ECMWF remains one of the slower solutions, still over NE NC at 12z Fri, with the latest GFS not far behind and the latest NAM faster, in line with the official forecast track. The band of enhanced moisture now streaming into SE GA will translate N through central and E NC Wed, bringing high pops and an initial round of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. This presents a problem in terms of messaging (letting people know that this first bout of rainfall is indirectly, not directly, associated with Michael) as well as service (some spots may get enough heavy rain Wed to warrant flood advisories or perhaps warnings). At this time, the threat of very heavy rain on Wed should not present a widespread flooding threat, so will not start a flood watch this early, but this potential will be monitored closely through tonight. Expect a trend to categorical pops from SSW to NNE as this band shifts through the area Wed. Highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A short relative lull is expected Wed evening between this rain band and the rain shield directly associated with Michael. Heavy rain is expected to shift into our SW sections prior to daybreak Thu, then overspread the area through Thu evening before tapering down late Thu night. General model consensus indicates rainfall potential of 3- 6" over the forecast area during this time, and will go ahead with a flash flood watch for the entire area, starting at 6 am Thu (although this may need to be started earlier in the far SW), running until 5 am Fri. Based on the latest track and wind decay, sustained speeds are likely to be in the 15-25 mph range over the W (W of highway 1), with gusts of 25-30, while sustained speeds in the 20-30 mph range and gusts of 30-40 mph are expected from highway 1 E. We may need a tropical storm warning at some point across the SE sections, and this will be evaluated over the next day. Expect lows of 69-74 Wed night, highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Thu, and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s Thu night as the post- Michael cooler air begins to roll in. -GIH && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... As Michael exits to the northeast, fall will quickly filter in behind the system as northerly winds prevail and temperatures quickly drop to levels we have not seen in some time. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. This is actually pretty close to normal for this time of year with those values only slightly below. The weekend will feature more of the same as transient continental high pressure crosses just north of the state. Saturday will be colder than Sunday as northerly flow turns to southerly as the high moves east. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday with mainly low to mid 70s for Sunday. Both days are expected to be dry. An upper trough will move east across the Midwest for early next week as a surface low in eastern Canada drags a cold front across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and then eastward towards NC. Models are slightly off on timing and QPF values but suffice to say rain chances will increase early next week. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s on Monday ahead of the front but it is expected to cross the area on Tuesday and therefore a big temperature gradient is expected with the Triad in the mid to upper 60s and the southeastern counties in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: An easterly low level flow will become more southeast to southerly today, allowing moisture to increase across the area. This will result in cigs dropping into the MVFR range this morning, with possibly some IFR cigs at KGSO/KINT this morning. In addition a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area from SW to NE today, generally in the 15Z to 21Z time frame, followed by a lull in the precip before the main shield of precip moves into the area on Thursday morning associated with Hurricane Michael. However, cigs will likely fall into the IFR to LIFR range late this evening into early Friday morning. Outlook: Adverse aviation conditions will likely persist tonight through Friday morning as moisture related to the remnants of Hurricane Michael begin to impact the area. Expect variable CIGS/VSBYs/Wind speed and direction through this period. Weather conditions will improve significantly and dramatically on Friday and likely continue into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/JJM