531 FXUS62 KRAH 091853 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered to our northeast will extend into the area through tonight. Hurricane Michael is forecast to move northward over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, before making landfall over the Florida panhandle Wednesday. The storm will then move quickly northeast over the Southeast states and Carolinas Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 PM Tuesday... The threat of shallow showers, driven by low level destabilization prompted by heating, will continue for a few more hours, with the greatest coverage over E and N sections along a band of slightly higher PW and accelerating low level moisture transport from off the Atlantic. This activity should translate to our NW and wane during the early to mid evening with loss of heating. Higher level moisture over the region as noted on GOES water vapor channels is expected to continue lifting north tonight, and the temporary reduction in high clouds will likely facilitate radiational cooling and fog/stratus development overnight. But the low level water vapor channel also shows some relative drying, with models depicting steady or slightly lower moisture influx in the low levels, so the extent of any such fog/stratus is uncertain. The latest HRRR runs are pretty timid, showing little or no fog/stratus for much of the night. Toward morning, however, the band of higher moisture transport/PW now oriented from just NE of the Bahamas northwestward into SE GA will translate northward, getting into our far S sections late tonight. Pops will depict the downward trend this evening, then a return to higher pops late arriving from the S, along with a trend to overcast skies. Muggy lows of 66-71. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Tuesday... Hurricane Michael is forecast to move northward into the FL Panhandle/Gulf Coast States on Wednesday. This should allow deep southerly flow to increase across our area, with PW's increasing into the 2-2.5 inch range on Wednesday. Several bands of heavy showers and storms are expected on Wednesday as tropical moisture streams into the area. This should help keep high temps generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with a few mid 80s across the east. A brief lull is expected in the more widespread activity on Wednesday night, before chances for precip will increase again with the approach of TC Micheal. Low temps Wednesday night are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, very warm for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... What is left of hurricane Michael is scheduled to arrive in central NC on Thursday and latest NHC forecast as well as intensity guidance bring the system through as a tropical storm with heavy rains coming into play for central NC. Currently, the guidance is fairly tightly packed for a day 3 forecast and most models have the track going across central NC on Thursday. The problem is, only slight differences to the east or west in the track will have significant impacts on the forecast. At the moment, the official forecasted track does go across the southern third of our forecast area. That situation seems fairly likely but there are several forecast models showing a track slightly north and west of the official track which is hedged closer to the ECMWF model which keeps the track of the low much closer to the coast. On the current official forecast track we expect much of the tornado threat to be confined to the coast and extreme southeastern portions of the forecast area. The stronger winds would also remain to the southeast of the area. Rainfall however, could be a different story. As an upper trough and a cold front move in from the west, the storm will interact with these features and this will help it to become extra tropical which would shift the heaviest rainfall from along and east of the track to west of the track which would put the heaviest amounts across our forecast area. At this time, these amounts appear to be in the 4-5 inch range and would primarily occur along and slightly east of US1. This would likely cause some river flooding issues depending on which basins it falls in. If a more westerly track occurs, this band of intense rainfall would shift to the north and west, closer to the I-85 corridor and possibly into portions of the Triad. This would also bring more of the tornado threat in play for southeastern counties. This trend is one that needs to be followed over the next couple of days. In either case, the wind threat will be minimal with sustained winds of 25-30 kts with gusts to tropical storm force. Another high confidence element to this storm is that its forward speed will be increasing as the storm moves northeast, and therefore is not expected to spend much time at all in the state with it coming in Thursday morning and out of the area by early Friday morning. As the storm exits on Friday, the cold front moves through and we get our first taste of fall temperatures coming in for the weekend and into early next week. Highs will be generally in the 70s with lows in the low to mid 50s and maybe even some upper 40s across the NW Piedmont. Dry weather is expected through the weekend before a another frontal system approaches for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 136 PM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: SCT to BKN VFR ceilings are the general rule across central NC this afternoon. However, isolated to widely scattered showers with short lived CIG and VSBY restrictions are developing and spreading inland to the northwest. These showers should diminish around sunset before period of sub-VFR conditions develops late tonight, with more wide spread MVFR/IFR conditions mostly in CIGS, with some LIFR conditions possible, mainly across the Triad. Light northeast to easterly winds are expected through the period at 10kts or less. Looking further ahead: A band of showers and a few thunderstorms will lift northward across central NC on Wednesday afternoon and evening followed by a lull before for most of Wednesday night. More widespread showers and thunderstorms along with windy conditions associated with Hurricane Michael will spread across the area from the southwest on Thursday and continues into Thursday night. Weather conditions will improve significantly and dramatically on Friday and continue into the weekend. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Blaes