874 FXUS65 KPUB 111022 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 422 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 422 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...More Snow for the Mountains with Fog and Scattered Light Precip Elsewhere... Another disturbance is rotating through a large trough over Utah and headed into Colorado this morning. This system promises to bring another round of snow to the Continental Divide today and tonight, with scattered snow showers reaching the eastern mountains at times. Not much precipitation expected across the plains, but there could be some scattered light showers at times, in the form of rain or snow above 6,000 feet and mainly rain below. Across El Paso County, moist low level southeast (upslope) winds have really saturated things. Widespread dense fog covers a good portion of the County. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 11 AM. There could also be some areas of drizzle, freezing locally on colder surfaces, such as bridges and overpass. However, temperatures are just right at freezing and ground temperatures are still pretty warm from the recent late season heatwave. So, don't expect any freezing drizzle to be very widespread. The low visibilities due to the fog could certainly be a problem, though. Areas of fog will also be found across the rest of southern Colorado this morning and will likely effect the morning commute for many. However, since it is not expected to be as widespread or dense, no other advisories have been issued. Regardless, commuters across all of southern Colorado should be prepared for foggy areas this morning. Since temperatures are near freezing over El Paso County and also the northern San Luis Valley, the Freeze Warning will remain in effect for those areas. Elsewhere, temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s and likely to stay there due to all the clouds and moisture. So, the Freeze Warning that was in effect for the rest of southeast Colorado has been cancelled. With the next system moving through, the Continental Divide should see more early season snowfall. The Continental Divide north of Monarch Pass should see another 4-8 inches by Friday morning. The Divide south of Monarch should pick up another 3-6 inches. The eastern mountain ranges could see scattered amounts of 1-4 inches, mainly above 10,000 feet. Elevations above 6,000 feet across El Paso County could also see a dusting of snow at times from passing snow showers. Mainly just some spotty light rain showers elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 422 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Friday and Saturday...Colorado will be situated under light west to northwest flow aloft both Fri and Sat, with an upper low over southern CA and another upper trough digging south across the northern Rockies. This will lead to a couple of days of gradual warming and relatively dry conditions. Expect highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s both days for most locations. Sunday and Monday...As the trough over the northern Rockies continues to dig to the south, a cold front is scheduled to push south across eastern CO late Sat aftn. Widespread showers and possibly a few storms are expected with the frontal passage Sat evening, then as the cold front surges south through the night sfc winds will swing around to a more easterly direction. Pcpn coverage and intensity increase overnight, with the heaviest pcpn forecast Sun morning for the eastern plains and along the southern border near the Raton Mesa. The southern foothills and along the Raton Mesa may see snowfall amounts of anywhere from 6 to 10 inches through Sun, while the peaks of the southern Sangres could see amounts in excess of a foot. Southbound travel on I-25 south of Pueblo early Sun morning will likely be difficult. The upper trough continues to push to the south and southeast the remainder of Sun, with the trough axis crossing the area Mon morning and signaling the end of pcpn soon thereafter. As for temps, Sun will be the coldest day for the plains especially as max temps are expected to only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s, while the San Luis Valley climbs into the mid to upper 40s. Temps on Mon are forecast to warm into the 40s for most areas, though that may need to be cooled a bit across the plains depending on total snow realized Sun. One other thing to note, that any areas that have not experienced freezing temps up to this point will likely freeze Mon morning. Tuesday and Wednesday...The trough passage Mon places CO under lighter northwest flow aloft through midweek, though another upper low wants to lurk over the desert sw. Both the GFS and EC models keep this upper low out of the picture for the time being, so will hold with a dry forecast and highs in the 50s for most locations both days. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 422 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will continue across most of the plains and mountain areas today. However, developing southwest winds off of the Raton Mesa in the afternoon could erode the low clouds over much of Las Animas and Baca Counties, possibly extending into southern parts of Crowley, Bent and Prowers Counties. This could lift the CIGS and bring VFR conditions to those areas in the afternoon. Also, the San Luis Valley will also see southwest winds in the afternoon so VFR likely there as well. KCOS and KPUB will see mainly LIFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS this morning improving to MVFR to IFR in the afternoon and evening. KPUB and especially KCOS will be dealing with fog this morning. KCOS VSBYS will be LIFR while KPUB VSBYS will be mainly MVFR or better. Some scattered light precip also possible at each site. KALS should be mainly VFR next 24 hours. However, the site will deal with gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph at times. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ058-060. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ069-084-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MDT this morning for COZ084-085. && $$ SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LW