221 FXUS65 KPUB 101732 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1132 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...Cold with More Snow for the Continental Divide and Showers Elsewhere... Big, upper low spinning over norther Utah will send another wave of moisture eastward across the Continental Divide this morning. The clouds and showers are clearly visible on satellite and radar loops, moving eastward across the western slope. Snow will be heaviest along the Divide this morning up through about noon before tapering off through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Then, late tonight, after midnight, a new round of snow will develop along the Divide. The high valleys and eastern mountain ranges will see snow showers move through at times as pieces of energy shear off from the activity along the Divide and spread eastward. The Pikes Peak and Palmer Divide Region could see some of this activity at times as stronger pieces of energy move through. For the rest of the plains, just a spotty shower here or there is all that is expected through tonight. Snowfall will be greatest along the Continental Divide north of Monarch Pass, where total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected above 11,000 through this evening, with 1 to 4 inches below 11,000 feet. South of Monarch Pass, the La Garitas and San Juans will see 3 to 6 inches above 10,000 feet, with 1 to 3 inches below. The northern Sangre de Cristos will see similar amounts. For Pikes Peak, the Rampart Range, the Wet Mountains and the southern Sangre de Cristos, scattered accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible through this evening. Elevations above 6,000 feet across El Paso County could see some wet snow showers at times but any accumulations should be localized, light and confined mainly to grassy or elevated surfaces. Elsewhere, any precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain but some wet snow flakes could mix in at times. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the plains and northern San Luis Valley this morning as temperatures remain near freezing. Clouds and scattered precipitation may prevent a hard freeze but it will be close. A Freeze Watch is in effect for late tonight and early Thursday morning as temperatures will get down near the freezing mark once again. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ... Winter arrives to the Plains on Sunday... Two systems will impact the region during this period. The first system will move through at the beginning of this period (THU) and will bring snow primarily to the central mountain region. The 2nd system will move across the region Saturday night and Sunday, and will have the potential to impact the entire forecast area with winter precipitation, and freezing (hard freeze) temperatures. An active pattern will occur for about the first one half of this period, with the weather becoming more tranquil from Tuesday onward. With a large ridge over the eastern Pacific, several disturbances will drop down on the eastern side of this ridge and affect the region. The first will be Thursday and this system promises to bring more snow primarily to the central mtn region. Some precip will also likely occur over the Pikes Peak region and possibly the Palmer Divide area. some snow will also occur in the sw mtns. Several inches of snow will be likely over the Central mountains, with lesser amounts over the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak area and sw mtns. Precip over the lower elevations will likely be liquid. A more potent system will move across the region starting late Saturday and last into Sunday. This system promises to bring cold temperatures to the region with a hard freeze possible over the Plains Sunday night. This system will likely bring accumulating snow to the mountains, especially the east facing slopes of the southern mtns. This system will also have the potential to bring snow to parts (most?) of the plains Saturday night and into Sunday morning. At this time the best chance of accumulating snow at lower elevations appears to be at 6000 feet or higher, but snowflakes will be possible across most of the plains with system. The main impact with this 2nd system will be the widespread freezing temperatures that will likely occur across the region early Monday morning. Temps are expected to fall into the teens and 20s across all of the lower elevations, and this will put an end to the growing season. In additions, swamp coolers and sprinkler systems will need to be winterized prior to this weekend to prevent damage from occurring to these systems. Temps will begin to warm up starting Monday, with temps returning to the 50s and 60 lower elevations by mid week. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1039 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 IFR to LIFR conditions will persist at KPUB and KCOS through the afternoon with periodic snow showers at times. Conditions could rise into the MVFR category at times between showers at KPUB, but high res models continue to indicate another band of showers expected to move across the area this afternoon. Cigs will rise a bit towards 22z...but then lower again during the evening as upslope east to southeast winds continue. Suspect that IFR to LIFR conditions may persist at KCOS into Thursday afternoon while KPUB may see cigs rise into the MVFR category by 17z with a few breaks in the cloud deck expected by late afternoon. KALS will stay VFR over the next 24 hours. VCSH will be possible this afternoon, which could bring a brief VFR cig through this evening, though these conditions are more likely to stay north of the terminal. Southwest winds will gust to around 30 kts at times this afternoon but will diminish towards 01z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for COZ069-083>089-093>099. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ058- 060. && $$ SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...KT