791 
FXUS65 KPIH 110902
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
302 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...A high-amplitude ridge is extending into the Gulf of 
Alaska with a deep trough dug into the Southwest US. Some showers will
linger over the Central Mountains until later this afternoon until 
ridging begins to advance eastward. Some patchy fog may develop this
morning given the ample moisture present from recent rainfall. We may
see fog again, or rather freezing fog, tomorrow morning as clouds
clear. On Saturday morning, a cold front will dive in from the 
north, with winds expected to become northerly behind the front. 
Some slight chance PoPs are anticipated in conjunction with the 
frontal passage, but impacts should be minor, and confined to the 
Eastern Highlands. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures are
expected to drop sharply Sunday and Monday morning with lows in 
the 20s expected in the valleys and the Snake Plain. With ridging 
expected to slowly advance inland early next week, we should see 
temperatures back in the 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday next week. 
Extended periods look dry as we remain under the influence of 
upper ridging. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...Low confidence Aviation forecast through the period, 
with numerous cloud-height forecast issues. Observational trends are 
generally not aligned with model forecasts, as most guidance is much 
more pessimistic than reality. Models advertise significant low 
Stratus for most sites through this morning, when in fact CIGs are 
currently VFR for all but SUN and DIJ. Will let observational trends 
carry the most weight this morning, and only trend CIGs down slightly 
from 12-18Z. After 18Z, VFR CIGs should take hold for all sites, 
with DIJ perhaps and exception. Most guidance suggests a lowering 
and expanding Stratus deck for all but SUN beginning around the 06Z 
timeframe tonight. Will trend the forecast in this direction. In 
terms of Precip, DIJ and PIH will have the best opportunity for 
Shower activity, with this ending at PIH by 18Z and DIJ between 21-
00Z. P-type should be constrained to SN at DIJ through the morning, 
mixing with or changing to RA during the afternoon. Any additional 
Precipitation should be light and have little influence on CIG or VIS 
trends. AD/Hinsberger

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered Rain and Snow Showers will 
persist this morning, mainly in higher elevation areas near the 
Montana and Utah borders. This activity should largely diminish by 
this Afternoon. A strong cold front will sweep southward across the 
region on Saturday, with breezy north winds in its wake. Gusts may 
approach critical levels across the Snake Plain and for upper slopes 
of the higher terrain areas along the Wyoming and Utah borders. 
Minimum relative humidity values should largely remain above 
critical levels through the week, although these values may be 
approached on Saturday and Sunday afternoons for portions of zones 
413 and 427. Although a couple of isolated Rain and Snow showers 
can't be ruled out Saturday afternoon and evening, dry conditions 
are currently forecast for next week. AD/Hinsberger

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$