258 
FXUS61 KPBZ 100520
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
120 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and unseasonable warmth will continue into
Wednesday. The next chance for precipitation will occur Thursday
with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast is on track, no changes are needed at this time.

Previous discussion...

Dry weather and unseasonable warmth will continue through 
tonight, thanks to upper level high pressure centered off of the
Atlantic seaboard. Southerly flow will maintain high humidity 
levels, with temperatures running about 20 degrees above
average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This period will herald the long-advertised pattern change from
lingering summer to autumn. High pressure will erode Wednesday 
in advance of an approaching cold front, progged to cross the 
region on Thursday. Precipitation chances will increase ahead 
of approaching frontal boundary Wednesday evening, with PoPs 
likely overnight into early Thursday. Though thunderstorms are 
anticipated in advance of cold front, severe weather is not 
expected due to lacking instability. Flooding is not a concern 
at this time due to the progressive nature of the frontal 
passage, which should clear the area by Thursday afternoon. 

Seasonal temperatures are anticipated behind the frontal
passage, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the
preceding night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will be defined by a series of disturbances
moving through the base of a broad trough centered near the
Hudson Bay. 

Precip. probability for the weekend and early next week will
thus be shortwave dependent with confidence in the timing of 
individual disturbances being minimal. The best chance of rain 
at moment is forecast with a late period cold front.

Temperature were forecast at, or below the seasonal averages
with the better chance for recovery coming with the warm
advection in advance of the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is expected through the afternoon under a high pressure
ridge. A few showers are possible late this aftn as the ridge
shifts E, and a weak shortwave in SW flow crosses the area.
Widespread deterioration to MVFR and eventually IFR is expected
Wednesday night with the approach of a cold front. 

Outlook... 
Widespread restrictions are expected to continue Thu with FROPA.
Restrictions are possible Fri and Sat with cool NW flow and 
upper troughing, and again Sun with a crossing cold front. 

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$