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FXUS61 KPBZ 100003 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
803 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and unseasonable warmth will continue into
Wednesday. The next chance for precipitation will occur Thursday
with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
805pm update...no changes to previous update are necessary. 

Previous discussion...

Dry weather and unseasonable warmth will continue through 
tonight, thanks to upper level high pressure centered off of the
Atlantic seaboard. Southerly flow will maintain high humidity 
levels, with temperatures running about 20 degrees above
average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This period will herald the long-advertised pattern change from
lingering summer to autumn. High pressure will erode Wednesday 
in advance of an approaching cold front, progged to cross the 
region on Thursday. Precipitation chances will increase ahead 
of approaching frontal boundary Wednesday evening, with PoPs 
likely overnight into early Thursday. Though thunderstorms are 
anticipated in advance of cold front, severe weather is not 
expected due to lacking instability. Flooding is not a concern 
at this time due to the progressive nature of the frontal 
passage, which should clear the area by Thursday afternoon. 

Seasonal temperatures are anticipated behind the frontal
passage, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the
preceding night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will be defined by a series of disturbances
moving through the base of a broad trough centered near the
Hudson Bay. 

Precip. probability for the weekend and early next week will
thus be shortwave dependent with confidence in the timing of 
individual disturbances being minimal. The best chance of rain 
at moment is forecast with a late period cold front.

Temperature were forecast at, or below the seasonal averages
with the better chance for recovery coming with the warm
advection in advance of the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The ridge
of high pressure aloft will begin to erode Wednesday afternoon
as a trough approaches from the west. As a result, a few 
isolated showers will be possible in the late afternoon hours.


Outlook... 
Widespread restrictions are expected with a Thu cold front. Cig
restrictions are possible Fri and Sat in cool NW flow and upper
troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$