222 FXUS64 KOUN 111603 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... Clouds should continue to thin some this morning with the exception of northwest Oklahoma. Overall, the forecast looks OK, but did adjust temperature and sky grids across the northern half of Oklahoma. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ DISCUSSION... Main concern for this forecast period will be rain chances over the weekend, especially the potential heavy rain associated with the remnants of Sergio. Details below. Precipitation chances start late Thursday as a digging shortwave and attendant cold front makes its way toward the central plains. Ahead of the front, isentropic lift may produce some stratiform rainfall ahead of the front Thursday night with continued rainfall possible with the front on Friday. Upper level support will give northeastern parts of the state the greatest precipitation chances. For the most part, rainfall amounts associated with this system should be light. The next system to come through will be the remnants of Sergio on Saturday. There's still some variance in the track (with the GFS further north and the NAM further south). Sticking with a more middle of the ground approach similar to the ECMWF, which will put the axis of highest precipitation roughly along the Red River (oriented from western north Texas into south central Oklahoma). The heaviest precipitation is expected during the day Saturday, especially the afternoon, when PWATs rise to around 1.5 inches. With all the antecedent rains that have fallen, this will need to be monitored closely for flooding potential. The biggest changes in the forecast were for Sunday and Monday. Models have strengthened the trough moving through the region at that time. An associated front will move through the area on Sunday. Given the stronger solution and the better agreement between models, opted to raise POPs significantly for this period. In addition, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing on Monday morning which could result in a rain/snow mix for a few hours. With each of these systems, there is some marginal instability, enough to support some isolated thunderstorms. As we move beyond Monday, models diverge greatly. Overall, precipitation chances will be much less but not totally absent. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 60 50 66 48 / 0 50 50 10 Hobart OK 60 53 69 49 / 0 30 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 65 54 73 54 / 0 40 40 20 Gage OK 56 51 65 43 / 0 30 20 10 Ponca City OK 57 48 59 43 / 0 50 70 10 Durant OK 65 53 68 54 / 0 20 40 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$