523 FXUS64 KOUN 102302 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 602 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... For the 00z TAFs: Wind speeds should peak tomorrow afternoon at around 10 knots at most locations, but otherwise will be below 10 knots. Direction may trend from variable or north-northwesterly initially to northeasterly later this evening/overnight. For simplicity, TAFs reflect wind direction and speed they are expected to trend too, so initially around 00z METARs may be slightly different. Overall not much impact to aviation, although we'll need to watch trends in the west for possible temporary MVFR stratus, particularly at Woodward and Clinton. Models vary on magnitude of moist layer but if it does saturate, bases could be on the high end of MVFR (around 2,500 ft or greater) late tonight or tomorrow morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... The primary forecast issue are the impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Sergio on Saturday. For Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig across the Midwest. The attendant cold front will pass by Oklahoma and north Texas during the daytime Friday. Ahead of the cold front, isentropic ascent/warm air advection may result in a scattered showers beginning Thursday night. A few showers may also develop along the cold front, especially across northeast Oklahoma. For Saturday, the remnants of Hurricane Sergio are forecast to move across north Texas/near the Red River. Widespread rain is expected as this system passes by with the potential for some locally heavy rainfall. There is still some uncertainty on the exact location of the heaviest rainfall as this will be dependent on the track of the remnants. The ECMWF is a little farther south than the GFS, which would result in the heaviest rainfall near the Red River (rather than central Oklahoma). As this system departs, a reinforcing cold front will move through the area. By Sunday into Monday, a post-frontal shortwave may result in rain behind the cold front. The ECMWF is more amplified with the wave than the GFS. Consequently, it has more widespread rainfall. There is a low chance of a rain/snow mix in far northwest Oklahoma early Monday morning with near freezing temperatures. The abundant cloud cover/limited insolation may result in a chilly Monday with forecast high temperatures in the low to mid- 50Fs-- around 20 deg below average for mid-October. Cool, below- average temperatures are expected to persist into next week. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 43 61 50 / 0 0 0 40 Hobart OK 62 45 61 53 / 0 0 0 30 Wichita Falls TX 65 47 66 55 / 0 0 0 20 Gage OK 57 40 54 49 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 57 41 58 48 / 0 0 0 50 Durant OK 67 48 66 53 / 0 0 0 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 11/12/12