787 FXUS64 KOUN 101823 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 123 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. MVFR ceilings will be possible mainly at PNC through about 20Z. A northwest to north wind will decrease and become northeast this evening and overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1105 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... Main update this morning was to keep clouds around longer over northern and central Oklahoma. Will also adjust afternoon highs down a few degrees, mainly across north central Oklahoma. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF discussion. AVIATION... MVFR ceilings at OKC/OUN are expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours with VFR thereafter across all sites through forecast period. Modest northwest winds will diminish this afternoon and shift to the northeast tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... Dry weather has finally returned, but it will not last for long. The next forecast concern is yet more rain over the weekend. Details below. Gulf moisture will return to the area on Thursday. On Friday a cold front will make its way through the area and, with the aid of some upper level support, will bring our first chance of precipitation to the area. Northern parts of Oklahoma, closer to the trough, will have the greatest chance for rain on Friday. The next round runs late Friday night through early Sunday as the remnants of Sergio marches across the area. There has been pretty good and consistent agreement among most of the models as to Sergio's track (though recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF seem to diverge). Decided to discount the GFS and ECMWF as outliers and stick with the more middle of the road approach. This system will bring the highest chances for rain as well as the highest potential rainfall totals. Models show a lack of instability except maybe some pockets near and south of the Red River, so kept thunder out of the forecast. Finally, as the remnants of Sergio make their exit, another cold front is set to come down on Sunday. Don't have a lot of confidence in the timing of this front as models are not in good agreement. Therefore, keeping POPs on the lower end. With these two fronts, especially the second one, cooler temperatures will fill in. For Monday morning, northwest Oklahoma could see low temperatures at or just below freezing. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 44 61 48 64 / 0 0 20 40 Hobart OK 45 62 50 67 / 0 0 30 30 Wichita Falls TX 47 67 52 71 / 0 0 20 30 Gage OK 41 56 46 63 / 0 0 30 30 Ponca City OK 40 58 47 59 / 0 0 20 50 Durant OK 49 67 51 68 / 0 0 0 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$