823 
FXUS64 KOUN 101118
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings at OKC/OUN are expected to dissipate over the next
couple of hours with VFR thereafter across all sites through
forecast period. Modest northwest winds will diminish this
afternoon and shift to the northeast tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Dry weather has finally returned, but it will not last for long. The 
next forecast concern is yet more rain over the weekend. Details 
below.

Gulf moisture will return to the area on Thursday. On Friday a cold 
front will make its way through the area and, with the aid of some 
upper level support, will bring our first chance of precipitation to 
the area. Northern parts of Oklahoma, closer to the trough, will 
have the greatest chance for rain on Friday.

The next round runs late Friday night through early Sunday as the 
remnants of Sergio marches across the area. There has been pretty 
good and consistent agreement among most of the models as to 
Sergio's track (though recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF seem to 
diverge). Decided to discount the GFS and ECMWF as outliers and 
stick with the more middle of the road approach. 

This system will bring the highest chances for rain as well as the 
highest potential rainfall totals. Models show a lack of instability 
except maybe some pockets near and south of the Red River, so kept 
thunder out of the forecast.

Finally, as the remnants of Sergio make their exit, another cold 
front is set to come down on Sunday. Don't have a lot of confidence 
in the timing of this front as models are not in good agreement. 
Therefore, keeping POPs on the lower end.

With these two fronts, especially the second one, cooler 
temperatures will fill in. For Monday morning, northwest Oklahoma 
could see low temperatures at or just below freezing.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  44  61  48 /   0   0   0  20 
Hobart OK         63  45  62  50 /   0   0   0  30 
Wichita Falls TX  66  47  67  52 /   0   0   0  20 
Gage OK           59  41  56  46 /   0   0   0  30 
Ponca City OK     60  40  58  47 /   0   0   0  20 
Durant OK         69  49  67  51 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/14/30