640 FXUS64 KOUN 100409 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... For the 06z TAFs: Somewhat challenging ceiling forecast through morning with regards to duration of MVFR stratus. Some locations may temporarily see breaks and VFR, but confidence is fairly high that VFR conditions will return by mid-morning at the latest. Northwest winds should decrease below 10 knots later in the day and veer to northerly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ UPDATE... Modified pops and wx a bit, including the mention of drizzle. Otherwise, frontal timing and temps appear to be on track. PREV DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION... Area of light to moderate rain will continue to slowly shift east through this evening. Additional light showers may develop west near the front and/or closer to the upper trough but for most the rain has ended. The potential for heavy rain has ended so the Flood Watch has been cancelled. However, ongoing flooding is still likely occurring and many rivers will be in flood for at least a few more days. The cold front which currently extends from west central into north central Oklahoma will move across the area through this evening. Cool and drier air will move into the area behind the front. There will be a brief break from the rain for the next couple of days but rain chances will return late this week and continue into the weekend. Some light rain will be possible Thursday night into Friday as upper trough moves across the northern/central Plains. After that models begin to differ but the overall scenario is that the remnants of Sergio will affect the fa over the weekend bringing another round of heavy rain to parts of the area. A cold front will also move across the region bringing colder air to the fa with lows in the 30s across parts of the fa and maybe near freezing in NW OK Monday morning. Precipitation chances could also linger into early next week with precipitation possible due to upper wave that pushes the front across the area. The differences come in timing of the front and strength/path of the remnants of Sergio. With the uncertainties didn't make too many major changes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 47 62 44 / 100 90 0 0 Hobart OK 69 45 63 45 / 100 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 49 67 47 / 100 40 0 0 Gage OK 55 40 60 41 / 100 30 0 0 Ponca City OK 72 47 60 41 / 100 90 0 0 Durant OK 74 54 68 48 / 90 60 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 11/12/12