651 FXUS64 KOUN 091709 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs - Some rain showers will be possible across parts of the area through early evening. However, chances are too low at some sites for mention in TAFs. Cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening causing winds to shift. VFR/MVFR/IFR ceilings possible but ceilings will gradually improve and/or clear overnight into Wednesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF discussion. AVIATION... Widespread rain along with MVFR and IFR conditions expected to continue across much of the area into the afternoon hours. Much of the precip should push out this afternoon into the this evening from west to east, but MVFR ceilings will hang tough until after 06Z when CSM/LAW/SPS should see ceilings dissipate and VFR conditions return. Will also have a front that is currently in northwest Oklahoma push southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. This will bring a shift in surface winds from south/southwest to the northwest. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... Continuing threat of heavy rain and flooding through Tuesday evening remains the main forecast concern. After a brief break from rain on Wednesday and Thursday, rain chances will return going into the weekend. Details for both of these events are below. A deep trough continues to trudge eastward over the four corners region around toward western Kansas. As this system makes its way out, we'll see one last batch of rain through the day. This will develop over western Oklahoma and push eastward through the day with rain ending west to east this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall continues to be the main concern with these showers and storms. PWATs are hovering around 1.5 inches. With this rainfall falling on already saturated ground (due to the extensive rainfall we've already received over the last several days), flash flooding will continue to be a risk. Will keep the flood watch going with no changes. There will also be enough instability and wind shear to support a few strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across south central and central Oklahoma. A cold front will move through late Tuesday evening and overnight, clearing the area of moisture. We'll have a few dry days (Wednesday and Thursday) before rain chances pick back up again. In addition, this front (and a subsequent one on the weekend) will usher in some cooler weather with highs in the 50s and 60s. Moisture returns from the gulf on Thursday. This will interact with a long wave trough and associated front to bring rain chances back for through the weekend starting late Thursday night. In addition, models currently show the remnants of hurricane Sergio moving up through our area on Saturday. After the cold front moves through Sunday, we'll see next week likely start out cool and dry. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 47 63 44 / 100 20 0 0 Hobart OK 68 45 64 45 / 100 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 50 68 48 / 100 10 0 0 Gage OK 55 40 60 42 / 100 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 71 47 61 41 / 100 60 0 0 Durant OK 75 56 70 49 / 90 40 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013- 018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ 03/25/99