633 FXUS61 KOKX 110528 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 128 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will approach the region on Thursday, and move across the area Thursday night. This cold front will then interact with Tropical Cyclone Michael, steering the system south and east of the area Thursday into Friday. High pressure briefly builds into the region late Friday into Friday night. A weak low moves through the area Saturday. High pressure briefly builds over the area Saturday night and moves offshore Sunday. A cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday as a wave of low pressure on the front passes south into Tuesday. Yet another cold front approaches Wednesday. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest forecast information on Tropical Cyclone Michael. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Earlier fog across eastern Long Island has lifted. In fact, much of the stratus across Long Island has eroded as middle and high clouds have begun to move in from the west. Stratus has expanded across southern Connecticut where skies were clear. As middle and upper moisture increases tonight along with warm advection above the surface, do not anticipate widespread fog. However, patchy fog is still possible and will leave in the forecast especially after midnight. A cold front will approach the region tonight, resulting in an increasing clouds. With cloudy conditions, combined with a warm humid airmass already in place, do not expect lows to fall very much. Temperatures tonight will only fall into the middle and upper 60s. The chances for showers will increase late tonight across the far northwestern sections of the CWA as the cold front continues its trek eastward. The heaviest rain should hold off until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As a cold front approaches and move across the region Thursday and Thursday night, it will interact with a plume of tropical moisture, resulting in periods of rain through the short term. Precipitable water values will rise to between 2 and 2.5 inches, resulting in periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Average rainfall across the region is expected to range between 1 and 2 inches, with locally higher amounts. As a result, have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA from noon on Thursday through Thursday night. Right now, it appears the heaviest rain will occur across NYC, Long Island and southeastern CT. Additionally, with instability increasing through the short term, we will continue to mention the chance of thunderstorms. The cold front should will push off shore late Thursday night, ushering a cooler air mass, but still above normal temperatures for Thursday night. The chances for rain will decrease throughout the night, from northwest to southeast. Highs on Thursday will climb into the 70s and lower 80s, while Thursday night lows fall into the 50s and 60s. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest forecast information on Tropical Cyclone Michael. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will be moving east of the region early Friday as this front interacts with post tropical storm Michael. Strong cold advection and a strong pressure gradient force early Friday will result in strong gusty winds. However, these winds are expected to remain below advisory levels. Some of the coldest air of the fall will be moving into the region Friday night and there will be the potential for areas of frost across portions of the lower Hudson Valley both Friday night and Saturday night as a re enforce cooler airmass moves in behind a weak low. The northern stream remains very active through the long term period with several shortwave rotating through the longwave eastern trough. The strength and amplitude of these shortwaves will vary. One weak wave moves through Saturday, with another weak wave Sunday night into Monday, with another deeper wave passing through Monday night into Tuesday. A much deeper and nearly fully amplitude wave is expected for Wednesday. Early in the long term guidance was well clustered and used a blend of the models. Then for late Monday into Wednesday there was divergence among the guidance and leaned toward WPC for probabilities. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An approaching frontal system will interact with tropical moisture to produce heavy rain showers today and tngt. Cigs are expected to lower to ifr all areas thru 9z. There is a low prob that cond stay vfr for much of the area, including the NYC arpts, until the rain arrives aft 9z. Widespread IFR and potentially lower conditions this mrng and staying near IFR during the day into evening with the potentially heavy rain showers. KSWF is forecast to have rain begin to taper off this evening. There will be a chance of thunderstorms as well so vcts has been added to the tafs. S to SW flow at 10 kt or less tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt today with gusts 20-25 kt along the coast during the afternoon and early evening. Low level wind shear expected for KISP and KGON with SW low level jet of 45kt at 2kft. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Late tonight...IFR or lower, especially e of NYC arpts, with improvement to mvfr or better by 12z. Rain heavy at times, with chance of thunderstorms. Winds becoming nw. .Friday...MVFR with a chance of showers, mainly in the morning, then becoming VFR. Winds NW 15-20KT G25-30KT. Gusts to 35 kt possible mainly early. .Saturday-Sunday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible Saturday into Saturday evening as well as Sunday night. .Monday...Chance of MVFR in showers. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight with a weak S-SW flow. Small Craft conditions develop Thursday afternoon as a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front. Seas will build to 4-6 ft Thursday and Thursday night. Small craft advisory conditions will be on going Friday morning as northwest winds develop behind a cold front and post tropical storm Michael passing to the south and east. A small craft advisory is in effect through Friday morning on all the forecast waters. There may be several hours of gale force gusts on the ocean waters Friday morning and a gale watch has been posted. Small craft seas on the ocean will remain Friday afternoon. Ocean seas slowly subside west to east Friday afternoon into Friday night. Sub SCA level winds and seas are expected Saturday through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain Thursday into Thursday night may be heavy at times as a southerly LLJ transports a deep tropical moisture plume into the area ahead of a cold front. While total rainfall from Thursday into Friday morning should range from 1-2 inches, localized amounts of 2-3 inches can not be ruled out. As a result, have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides, running about 1 to locally 2 ft above normal, may result in minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide Thursday morning and early Thursday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high minimum temperatures for Wednesday October 10, 2018 and Thursday October 11, 2018, along with the 24 hour forecast lows prior to Midnight LST. Wed October 10... RecordForecast Central Park........69 (1949)68 LaGuardia...........69 (2017) 69 Kennedy.............66 (2017) 67 Islip...............67 (1997) 67 Newark..............66 (2017) 67 Bridgeport..........64 (2017) 66 Thu October 11... Central Park........68 (1949)69 LaGuardia...........69 (1990) 69 Kennedy.............67 (1990)68 Islip...............66 (1990)68 Newark..............69 (1990)69 Bridgeport..........63 (2011)67 && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for CTZ005>012. NY...Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Friday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Gale Watch Friday morning for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/19 NEAR TERM...BC/DS SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...JMC/JM MARINE...BC/DS/19 HYDROLOGY...BC/19 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...