905 FXUS61 KOKX 100846 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 446 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system approaching from the Mississippi Valley today will interact with Tropical Cyclone Michael, steering the system south and east of the area Thursday into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the system through Saturday night, passing offshore on Sunday as a frontal system impacts the area early next week. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest forecast information on Tropical Cyclone Michael. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure at the surface will be centered well off the East coast today. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the Eastern Great Lakes, out ahead of an approaching surface cold front moving east over the mid-West. After some early morning fog and stratus, conditions should start to improve with surface heating. Southerly flow will keep a warm and humid air mass in place today, with highs in the middle to upper 70s. Some lower 80s are expected across northeast New Jersey, while slightly cooler conditions can be expected across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. With deep layered riding over the area, it should remain dry. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will increase out ahead of the cold front. Combined with the a humid air mass will mean temperatures will not drop much. Lows are expected to be in the 60s region-wide, with lows of 70 not out of the question in parts of the New York City metro area. Normal lows this time of year should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The chances for showers will increase tonight as the cold front continues its trek eastward. However, it still seems that heaviest rain will hold off until Thursday. A plume of tropical moisture on the western periphery of the high pressure off the East Coast along with a prefrontal surface trough will be the focus for moderate to heavy rain showers on Thursday into Thursday night. Precipitable water values well over 2 inches will advect in from the mid-Atlantic states. This is well above the 1.79" maximum value observed in climatology from SPC's Sounding Climatology Page. It is still difficult to pinpoint where and when this area of heavy rain will be, but there is some model agreement with between 8 am and 2 pm for the Lower Hudson Valley and perhaps into the northeast New Jersey, New York City, and southwestern Connecticut. This axis of moderate to heavy rain will then push southeast over Long Island and southeastern Connecticut from 2 pm to 8 pm. Again, there is still some uncertainty with timing and exactly how much rain due to interaction of Tropical Cyclone Michael, which will be picked up by this frontal system and push off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday morning. Additionally, with instability increasing on Thursday and Thursday night, there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms. The cold front will push off shore late Thursday night, ushering a cooler air mass, but still above normal temperatures for Thursday night. The chances for rain will decrease throughout the night, from northwest to southeast. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest forecast information on Tropical Cyclone Michael. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will be passing offshore on Friday as Michael, then expected to be a post-tropical storm, passes southeast of Long Island. The combo of post-frontal CAA and a tightening of the pressure gradient as Michael passes should produce some stronger winds, with gusts 30-35 mph especially in NYC metro and along the coast. These winds will gradually diminish late day Fri into Fri night. Meanwhile, any rain associated with Michael's interaction with the departing cold front, mainly across Long Island and SE CT, should be pulling away Fri morning. The heaviest rain directly associated with Michael will remain well offshore. An upper trough will then move across on Sat while sfc high pressure builds. Think forcing from the trough should outweigh low level CAA and help produce clouds and some showers per 00Z ECMWF. Dry wx forecast for Sat night into Sunday in the wake of the trough passage. Looking longer term, a frontal system still has potential to produce showers Mon into Mon night, then a weak frontal wave moving up from the south in combination with a front approaching from the west may also produce showers Tue night. Except for daytime temps on Fri and Mon which should be fairly close to the seasonal average, expect below average temps, with widespread upper 30s for lows across the interior Sat night. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure departs farther southeast into the Atlantic through the TAF period. Mainly IFR and locally sub IFR conditions early this mrng. Improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR is expected throughout the day with a few hours of uncertainty for the improvement at individual terminals. Cigs again lower tngt with IFR developing by 12z Thu. Concerning winds, they will be S-SW 5-10 kt through much of the TAF period. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Highly vrb cigs possible thru 13z. It is possible that cond remain vfr, although that prob is low attm. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Highly vrb cigs possible thru 13z. It is possible that cond remain vfr, although that prob is low attm. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Possible that vis remains p6sm thru 13z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Possible that vis remains p6sm thru 13z. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of improvement. Vis may remain vfr thru 13z. KISP TAF Comments: Highly vrb cond possible thru 13z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Late tonight...MVFR/IFR. Increasing chance of showers toward Thursday morning. .Thursday...IFR or lower likely. Rain heavy at times, with chance of thunderstorms. S winds 10-15KT, gusting 20-30KT. LLWS possible. .Friday...MVFR with a chance of showers, mainly in the morning, then becoming VFR. Winds NW 15-20KT G25-30KT. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night with a weak S-SW flow. Small Craft conditions should develop Thursday afternoon as a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front develops. There is a low chance that some gusts approach gale force. Seas will also build to 4-6 ft Thursday and Thursday night. As the cold front passes offshore and as post-tropical storm Michael passes to the SE, expect strong SCA conds with gusts up to 30 kt, with any gale force gusts remaining SE of the coastal ocean waters. Max seas per NWPS should be as high as 9-10 ft on the outer ocean waters. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Fri night, with some gusts up to 25 kt still possible on the ocean and the eastern Sound/Bays, and some leftover 5-ft ocean seas out east Sat morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain Thursday into Thursday night may be heavy at times as a southerly LLJ transports a deep tropical moisture plume into the area ahead of a cold front. While total rainfall from Thursday into Friday should range from 1-1.5 inches, localized amounts of 2-3 inches and associated areal/flash flooding can't be ruled out, so have continued to mention in HWO. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high minimum temperatures for Wednesday October 10, 2018 and Thursday October 11, 2018, along with the 24 hour forecast lows prior to Midnight LST. Wed October 10... RecordForecast Central Park........69 (1949)68 LaGuardia...........69 (2017) 69 Kennedy.............66 (2017) 67 Islip...............67 (1997) 67 Newark..............66 (2017) 67 Bridgeport..........64 (2017) 66 Thu October 11... Central Park........68 (1949)69 LaGuardia...........69 (1990) 69 Kennedy.............67 (1990)68 Islip...............66 (1990)68 Newark..............69 (1990)69 Bridgeport..........63 (2011)67 && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...JMC MARINE...Goodman/JP HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JP CLIMATE.../Goodman/JP EQUIPMENT...