494 FXUS61 KOKX 100126 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 926 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system approaching from the Mississippi Valley midweek will interact with Tropical Cyclone Michael, steering the system south and east of the area Thursday into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the system through Saturday night, passing offshore on Sunday as a frontal system impacts the area early next week. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest forecast information on Tropical Cyclone Michael. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Main concern tonight is with low stratus and fog development. Some high clouds have prevented a more widespread development of low clouds so far, but feel this will change after midnight. Low clouds and fog development will become widespread with the potential for locally dense fog. Otherwise, an anomalously strong upper ridge along the eastern seaboard will gradually give way to an approaching longwave trough over the the Plain states. This will be the steering mechanism that take Tropical Cyclone on a NE track, but more importantly provides a tropical stream of moistures from the south, which will interact later in the week with the approaching frontal system. In the meantime, with surface high pressure offshore and S-SW flow, conditions will remain humid and unseasonably warm. Overnight lows will be approaching 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Similar to Tuesday, it will be another anomalously warm day with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A weak S-SW flow will continue to maintain a humid airmass in the region with dew points near 70. Partial clearing is forecast by afternoon. Showers ahead of the approaching cold front are not expected to approach the area until after midnight and perhaps as late as daybreak. Any heavy rainfall will be later in the day Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will once again be about 20 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A tropical moisture plume, well in advance of Hurricane Michael, will begin to stream into the area on Thursday ahead of an approaching front. As this front, nears the region, POPs gradually increase on Thursday with showers likely along with the chance of thunder. PWATs will increase to 2.00-2.50 inches and a southerly LLJ maxes out at 50 kt. This will likely result in a chance of heavy rain. The rain chances should remain high especially across Long Island and SE CT Thursday night and early Friday, as the front will be slow to push offshore as Michael passes to the southeast as a potent post- tropical storm. Any direct heavy rainfall from Michael should remain well offshore and winds should not be especially strong as Michael passes to the SE. High pressure and cooler wx should follow for the weekend, with highs only 55-60 on Sat and 60-65 on Sunday. A frontal system passing through on Monday and Tuesday should bring milder conditions, along with the chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure departs farther southeast into the Atlantic through the TAF period. Lowering conditions in stratus/fog expected tonight from SE to NW. Already MVFR/IFR conditions in place across terminals east of NYC. The low stratus spreads to other terminals for the rest of tonight and eventually some fog develops as well. There is some uncertainty of a few hours of the start time of this at individual terminals. Expecting mainly IFR and locally sub IFR conditions tonight into early Wednesday. Improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR is expected throughout the day Wednesday with again a few hours of uncertainty for the improvement at individual terminals. Concerning winds, they will be S-SW 5-10 kt through much of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR and IFR timing could vary 1-3 hours from forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR and IFR timing could vary 1-3 hours from forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: MVFR, IFR, and LIFR timing could vary 1-3 hours from forecast. KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR, IFR, and LIFR timing could vary 1-4 hours from forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: IFR could be delayed 1-2 hours from forecast. End time of IFR could vary 2-4 hours from forecast. KISP TAF Comments: IFR and LIFR timing could vary 2-4 hours from forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...Initially VFR but a return of MVFR/IFR late. Increasing chance of showers toward Thursday morning. .Thursday...MVFR or lower possible. Showers, with a chance of thunderstorms, heavy rainfall possible. S winds 10-15KT, gusting 20-30KT. LLWS possible. .Friday...MVFR with a chance of showers, mainly in the morning, then becoming VFR. Winds NW 10-15KT G20-25KT. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night with a weak S-SW flow. Small Craft Condition should develop Thursday afternoon as a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front develops. There is a low chance that some gusts approach gale force. Seas will also build to 5-6 ft Thursday and Thursday night. The SCA conditions expected to continue on the ocean waters from Thursday night into Saturday. Winds turn N then NW with the passage of Michael well to the SE on Friday, however, will remain above 5 ft as Michael passes south of the area. Sub-SCA conditions return to the waters Saturday night and Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain Thursday into Thursday night may be heavy at times as a southerly LLJ transports a deep tropical moisture plume into the area ahead of a cold front. While total rainfall from Thursday into Friday should range from 1-2 inches, localized amounts of 2-4 inches and associated areal/flash flooding can't be ruled out, so will mention in the HWO. && .CLIMATE... The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Wednesday October 10, 2018 and Thursday October 11, 2018 along with the 24 hour forecast low prior to Midnight. Record Max Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ Central Park........69 (1949) LaGuardia...........69 (2017) Kennedy.............66 (2017) Islip...............67 (1997) Newark..............66 (2017) Bridgeport..........64 (2017) Record Max Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ Central Park........68 (1949) LaGuardia...........69 (1990) Kennedy.............67 (1990) Islip...............66 (1990) Newark..............69 (1990) Bridgeport..........63 (2011) && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...