986 
FXUS64 KOHX 111012
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Michael now downgraded to a tropical storm and is centered about
25 mi east of Macon Ga. Far northwestern edge of the moisture has 
been producing a few showers across our Plateau overnight, 
otherwise its basically been a non-player for the mid state. Otw,
cold front currently just east of i-65 with lowering 
temps/dewpoints behind the fropa. Sat imagery showing partial 
clearing behind the front, although a solid low level stratus deck
is indicated across Mo, IL, and IN. The low cloudiness should 
stay to our north and clearing skies should prevail for today. 

Mostly clear skies expected for tonight with a few clouds returning 
on Friday. A weak upper level impulse will bring some added 
cloudiness by Friday night with a slight chance of showers across 
our north. Pcldy skies return on Saturday. 

For our near term temps, autumn has finally arrived. Despite a 
return to more sunshine, the mercury will top out mostly in the mid 
to upper 60s for today, while dewpoints drop down into the 40s. 
Expect low to mid 40s for lows the next 2 overnights.

In the ext fcst, weather dynamics to pick up as strong slug of upper
level energy pivots southward across the Rocky mountain states 
this weekend. A weak inverted sfc trough will then develop over 
the western Gulf. This feature will remain weak as it outruns the 
developing pva region back to the west. Still though, shower 
activity will return on Sunday. Pops will increase Monday and 
Tuesday as the aforementioned upper level energy swings across the
central and southern Plains. Mid/upper flow will become more 
southwesterly out ahead of the shortwave axis. Shower chances will
increase. Improving conditions will arrive on Wednesday as the 
shortwave axis passes through to our east. 

For the ext temps, that weak inverted trough will be east of the mid 
state by Sunday night and thus the cooler low level advection will 
remain. Therefore, a rather wet and raw period can be expected 
through Tues. Look for lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 50s 
to lower 60s. Slightly warmer by the end of the week as sunshine 
returns. However, temps will remain below normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cold front currently east of BNA will continue eastward track... 
leaving middle TN shortly. A few showers near CSV will exit early
as well. MVFR/IFR cloud decks expected to improve during the
morning behind this passing front...CSV the latest...becoming/ 
staying mostly clear tonight. VSBY expected to be unrestricted 
with much drier air settling in. Gusty wind today will drop off 
sharply after sunset. 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07