850 FXUS64 KOHX 110857 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 357 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... Michael now downgraded to a tropical storm and is centered about 25 mi east of Macon Ga. Far northwestern edge of the moisture has been producing a few showers across our Plateau overnight, otherwise its basically been a non-player for the mid state. Otw, cold front currently just east of i-65 with lowering temps/dewpoints behind the fropa. Sat imagery showing partial clearing behind the front, although a solid low level stratus deck is indicated across Mo, IL, and IN. The low cloudiness should stay to our north and clearing skies should prevail for today. Mostly clear skies expected for tonight with a few clouds returning on Friday. A weak upper level impulse will bring some added cloudiness by Friday night with a slight chance of showers across our north. Pcldy skies return on Saturday. For our near term temps, autumn has finally arrived. Despite a return to more sunshine, the mercury will top out mostly in the mid to upper 60s for today, while dewpoints drop down into the 40s. Expect low to mid 40s for lows the next 2 overnights. In the ext fcst, weather dynamics to pick up as strong slug of upper level energy pivots southward across the Rocky mountain states this weekend. A weak inverted sfc trough will then develop over the western Gulf. This feature will remain weak as it outruns the developing pva region back to the west. Still though, shower activity will return on Sunday. Pops will increase Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned upper level energy swings across the central and southern Plains. Mid/upper flow will become more southwesterly out ahead of the shortwave axis. Shower chances will increase. Improving conditions will arrive on Wednesday as the shortwave axis passes through to our east. For the ext temps, that weak inverted trough will be east of the mid state by Sunday night and thus the cooler low level advection will remain. Therefore, a rather wet and raw period can be expected through Tues. Look for lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Slightly warmer by the end of the week as sunshine returns. However, temps will remain below normal. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. With a cold front on the way, a weakening line of showers continues to push through our mid-state terminals. Brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected for the next couple of hours at KCSV, but VFR should be the prevalent flight category as skies look to clear out for KCKV/KBNA/KMQY overnight, KCSV late tomorrow morning. Winds will be the bigger story for aviation buffs tonight. As winds shift around to the northwest behind the front, it will start to gust 20-25 kts, relaxing a little during the day Thursday, but still breezy through early Thursday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 44 64 44 63 / 10 0 20 20 0 Clarksville 63 41 61 40 61 / 0 0 30 30 10 Crossville 66 41 63 42 59 / 30 0 10 0 0 Columbia 70 44 66 45 65 / 10 0 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 70 43 66 45 66 / 10 0 10 0 0 Waverly 65 42 62 41 62 / 0 0 30 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......21 AVIATION........07