885 
FXUS64 KOHX 101902
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
202 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

An organized line of convection is finally developing west of
Nashville as a cold front approaches Middle Tennessee from the
west. Activity probably won't be more than scattered the duration
of the afternoon, with the strongest cells likely forming east of
I-65 this evening as the aforementioned cold front pushes into the
mid state. Given the lack of instability across Middle Tennessee,
don't expect more than isolated storms with this system; most
of the activity will be showers only. Clearing later tonight and
tomorrow morning will be rapid as the cold front exits the mid
state and Hurricane Michael pulls off to the east. Look for 
significantly cooler temperatures by morning, and especially 
Thursday and Friday nights as strong cold advection takes place 
behind the cold front. The next chance of rain comes Sunday and 
Monday with a second cold front. This won't be a big weather-
producer; October cold fronts are often more about air mass 
change than active weather. And this next cold front will 
reinforce the cool air and keep our temperatures autumn-like 
throughout the upcoming 7-day forecast period and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Surface front is still situated west of the
Mississippi River and showers are having a difficult time getting
started in Middle Tennessee. Morning sounding from OHX does show a
lack of instability, with a lifted index of +2 and a CAPE near
zero, so we're going to require some other catalyst to start the
convection. HRRR has been quite accurate so far today in 
depicting a dearth of cells across Middle Tennessee. Expect 
scattered showers to begin developing later in the afternoon, then
becoming more organized generally east of I-65 after 00Z as the 
front moves into Middle Tennessee and becomes more energized. Also
expect winds to increase dramatically following fropa as the 
proximity of Hurricane Michael strengthens the pressure gradient. 
Clearing will be rapid later tonight and Thursday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  69  44  64  45 /  60  10   0   0   0 
Clarksville    50  66  42  62  43 /  30  10   0  10  20 
Crossville     57  66  41  60  43 /  70  40   0   0   0 
Columbia       55  69  44  64  45 /  50  10   0   0   0 
Lawrenceburg   55  70  43  65  44 /  60  20   0   0   0 
Waverly        51  67  43  63  44 /  30  10   0  10  10 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........08