868 
FXUS64 KOHX 101736
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cold front will be on approach today with the frontal boundary 
working through the mid state by around midnight tonight. Meanwhile, 
hurricane Michael is expected to move ashore and cross the FL 
Panhandle. He will then track northeast across southern GA. With 
this track, little moisture in association with Michael, will reach 
our area. However, the aforementioned boundary will conjure up some 
moisture of its own. Thus, look for shower and a few tstms to 
increase from west to east today and into tonight. There is not much 
upper support in the post frontal sector. Thus, look for pops to 
drop off rather rapidly late tonight from west to east. Lowering 
pops will persist across the Plateau through the day on Thursday. 
Qpf totals through Thursday will average around 1/3 to 1/2 inch. 

For our near term temps, looks like muggy conditions for 1 more day 
today. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 
upper 60s to lower 70s. Then, cooler weather to move in. Highs on 
Thursday will be only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Turning even 
cooler by Friday as the sfc high moves closer. Friday morning will 
carry lows in the lower 40s, highs Friday 60 to 65.

In the extended fcst, a quick moving inverted trough may bring a few 
showers on Sunday. This will be followed by a reinforcing shot of 
cooler air for next week. The pattern will be rather progressive 
with yet another boundary passage around mid week. 

The ext temps are looking like they will run on the cool side. 
Generally, look for lows in the 40s, and highs lower to mid 60s. 
Monday night looks like the coolest of the nights with lows in the 
30s, and perhaps some light frost? We shall see, but it appears that 
Autumn has finally arrived. 

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Surface front is still situated west of the
Mississippi River and showers are having a difficult time getting
started in Middle Tennessee. Morning sounding from OHX does show a
lack of instability, with a lifted index of +2 and a CAPE near
zero, so we're going to require some other catalyst to start the
convection. HRRR has been quite accurate so far today in 
depicting a dearth of cells across Middle Tennessee. Expect 
scattered showers to begin developing later in the afternoon, then
becoming more organized generally east of I-65 after 00Z as the 
front moves into Middle Tennessee and becomes more energized. Also
expect winds to increase dramatically following fropa as the 
proximity of Hurricane Michael strengthens the pressure gradient. 
Clearing will be rapid later tonight and Thursday morning.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08