709 FXUS64 KOHX 091946 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 246 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... Radar imagery this afternoon shows a few showers over our southeast counties although all other areas remain dry. Temperatures have warmed to well above normal levels for this time of year into the 80s for most locations, except on the Plateau where cloud cover has kept temperatures down in the 70s. No notable changes have been made to the forecast from previously. A large upper trough currently in the Plains states is still depicted well on all model guidance to swing eastward into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. As this occurs, it will force a strong cold front eastward into Tennessee late tomorrow into tomorrow night. With plenty of moisture and lift available ahead of the front, anticipating an increase in shower activity overnight tonight with a further increase in showers and a few thunderstorms tomorrow. Highest precip chances look to be Wednesday night as the frontal boundary moves across the cwa. This same upper trough will act to deflect Hurricane Michael well off to our east tomorrow and tomorrow night, with no direct impacts from the hurricane expected in Middle Tennessee. However, Michael may rob a substantial amount of the Gulf moisture that would otherwise be available ahead of our cold front, leading to lower overall precip amounts for us. Nevertheless, have kept pops on the high side in line with latest guidance. All rain should quickly end from west to east on Thursday, with our first Fall airmass arriving from the northwest. With the unusually warm weather that has affected Middle Tennessee since early September, it will likely be shocking to most as temperatures fall into the 40s by Friday morning and highs struggle to reach the 60s by Friday afternoon. Models begin to differ over the weekend with the ECMWF showing a much more significant warmup back into the 70s to near 80 by Sunday, while the GFS remains cooler in the 60s to near 70. Have split the difference for now until better model consensus emerges. Both global models do agree, however, that another shot of showers and storms will arrive Sunday night into Monday as another strong cold front pushes across the Tennessee Valley. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions continue this afternoon, with gusty SE winds of 20-25kt at the terminals. A few showers may impact CSV after 03z tonight, but mainly dry conditions expected. Pre-frontal showers may approach the sites tomorrow between 09z-15z but the main cold front and associated showers/storms will not approach the west until 17z or after...as shown in the CKV TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 83 59 70 45 / 30 60 60 20 0 Clarksville 69 82 54 66 42 / 30 60 60 10 0 Crossville 67 80 63 67 43 / 30 40 80 70 10 Columbia 71 82 59 70 44 / 30 60 60 10 0 Lawrenceburg 71 82 60 71 43 / 30 60 60 20 0 Waverly 70 82 55 68 43 / 30 60 60 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Shamburger AVIATION........Schaper