304 
FXUS63 KOAX 110842
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
342 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The main forecast concerns are frost/freeze headlines this morning,
then the potential for a light snow and light rain mix tonight
into Friday morning. Some very minor accumulations seem possible
in parts of northeast NE. 

Water vapor satellite loop early this morning showed the system
that brought precipitation to the area Tuesday night/Wednesday
moving off across northern MN. Another system was organizing to
thewest back over NV and UT. In the lower levels, at 850 mb a 
cold airmass had built southward from Canada and this covered much
of the northern half of the Plains. Surface analysis at 3 am 
showed cold high pressure building from eastern MT and the western
Dakotas into western NE and western KS. Will keep the previously 
issued headlines in effect until 10 am this morning. 

Surface ridge axis will continue to build eastward today, with
decreasing winds. Clouds have been a little slow to decrease, and
based on some of the high resolution short range model guidance,
decided to slow how fast the clouds are expected to diminish this
morning. That may have some impact on highs today, especially in
western IA. Expect highs in the 40s north, mid 40s to lower 50s
south. 

Tonight, with the surface ridge axis to the east, we will get into
weak low level warm air advection. At the same time, an upper
level disturbance will move in from the west. Models are in decent
agreement showing precipitation spreading into the area from the
west mainly after midnight. Chances should continue until mid
afternoon Friday. Low level thermal profiles suggest that there
will be a rain/snow mix or possibly a changeover to light snow for
a few hours in the northern half of the forecast area. We could
see about one to two tenths of an inch of snow in parts of
northeast NE. Limiting factors are relatively warm ground and the
fact that there should be a mix of rain and snow. 

Lows Friday night should drop into the 30s, with highs warming 
into the 50s Saturday. Some light rain could affect parts of
southeast NE by Saturday afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

There will also be some small precipitation chances Saturday 
night and then again Sunday into Sunday night for parts of 
southeast NE and southwest IA. Temperatures should be cold enough
for a mix of rain and snow early Sunday morning, then again 
Sunday night. 

Temperatures will remain below normal for the weekend and into the
mid part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

MVFR cigs expected to persist the next several hours at all TAF
sites. Conditions improving then to VFR before sunrise. 


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ078-088-089.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...DEE