216 FXUS63 KOAX 102113 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 413 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The main forecast focus in the short term is on potential for frost and freeze late tonight. Its not an easy forecast in that regard owing to widespread cloud cover and persistent northwest winds. The winds and clouds are likely to persist across a majority of the forecast area through Thursday morning which will effectively limit any frost potential. The exception is in far southwest parts of the forecast area where winds may become light enough in conjunction with clearing skies and temperatures in the low to mid 30s to allow frost to develop. Predicting sub-freezing temps is also a challenge as afternoon temps are only in the lower 40s over northeast NE, but clouds and winds overnight will help limit the diurnal temperature swing and believe lows will be in the 30-33 range. Have issued warning/advisory products for the areas of greatest confidence although some areas not in the warning could still flirt with the 32-34 range. Thursday will dominated by cool high pressure, and while temperatures will be chilly the good news is that winds will decrease and the sun is likely to make an appearance. Unfortunately that appearance will be short-lived as a new short wave trough approaches from the northwest. Moisture advection and isentropic lift aloft will bring mid and high level clouds to the area by late in the day and expect widespread light precipitation to overspread the area Thursday night into Friday as the main forcing with the trough crosses the area and lift becomes sufficient to overcome low-level dry air. An interesting aspect at that time will be precipitation type as temperatures will be quite cool. However, surface temperatures are likely to remain above freezing with periods of warm air aloft in advance of the system, so rain will be predominant type with some potential for periods of light snow especially north. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This weekend into next week will continue much cooler than normal with highs generally in the 50s. There will be a cooler period Sunday into Monday as a strong but dry cold front moves through the area. Then expect another strong cold front by the middle of next week. Other than wind and roller-coaster-but-cool temperatures, this stretch of weather will be rather benign. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR conditions are expected to continue this afternoon along with gusty northwest surface winds to around 20-25kts. Ceilings should gradually become VFR overnight as surface winds diminish to around 10 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ078-088- 089. Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Kern