050 FXUS63 KOAX 100435 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 827 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Have trimmed Flood Watch to only include southwest Iowa where there remains some threat of additional rainfall overnight, and rivers and creeks are either near or already in flood. The latest radar, satellite and model trends are all pointing to diminishing rainfall across all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. However, there is some signal in model output of an uptick in convection across eastern Kansas later tonight, with movement north-northeast into southwest Iowa. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A surface low was located over northeast Kansas this afternoon and is forecast to quickly move north/northeast across southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa by early evening. Aloft, large scale forcing for ascent continues over the region as a deep upper level trough extending from MT through western CO to NM slides east. An embedded shortwave within this trough was quickly moving southeast across ID this afternoon. Meanwhile, widespread showers will continue to push northeast of the forecast area as the surface low moves into northern Iowa overnight. Will continue to watch for any convection moving into far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa this afternoon/early evening as the surface low continues to progress north/northeastward. Any storms that develop in our far southeastern counties will be fast moving and a few could possibly be severe but the better instability axis will remain just off to our east within the enhanced risk area. Window of opportunity for severe storms in our far southeastern counties is quite narrow and will be watching closely for any development later this afternoon into early evening. Will leave the Flood Watch going as rain continues although the threat for any additional widespread flooding has diminished. Strong cold-air advection will quickly drop in behind this system as the above mentioned ID shortwave moves into the area. This should allow strong mixing so have bumped up winds a bit from blends for Wednesday. Surface high pressure will move toward the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning but the surface ridge axis and lighter winds will remain off to our west. Some frost will be possible in our far western counties but will hold off on any headlines just yet as surface winds may keep temps from bottoming out. A piece of shortwave energy will drop through northwesterly flow aloft on Thursday night into Friday which could bring in a small chance for some precipitation. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Cool temperatures will continue into the weekend and into next week. Model trends for precipitation through the weekend continue to push south, but model blends hang on to a chance south of I-80 so will leave that in for now. Temperature profiles indicate a potential ra/sn mix for some areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Widespread IFR cigs are forecast to remain over eastern Nebraska TAF sites into Wednesday morning before some improvement to MVFR near FL015 is expected, generally after 15Z. A period of MVFR vsbys in fog or drizzle is possible for several hours before 12Z, but the trend is for decreasing areal coverage of precipitation. Northwest winds are expected to increase into the 15 to 25kt range at mid morning and continue through 00Z, with MVFR cigs continuing through the end of the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ056-069-079-080-090- 091. && $$ UPDATE...Dergan SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Dergan