684 FXUS63 KOAX 091716 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1216 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The main forecast concerns in the short term are precipitation amounts in regards to flooding potential and possible severe storms for parts of the area later today into this evening. Some severe storms appear possible mainly in parts of southeast NE and parts of southwest IA. Some scattered storms formed yesterday into a linear MCS and affected the southeast portion of the forecast area as the front lifted north. We could have something similar today. Large scale pattern in the mid levels still shows a strong trough out over the Rockies with a weak closed low near the Four Corners region. The 500 mb flow is still from the south/southwest and a few more disturbances will be tracking across the area today into tonight. Models general show a fairly strong piece of the mid level trough ejecting out into the high Plains this evening, then out of the area by early Wednesday afternoon. Then will have a dry forecast Wednesday night through Thursday, with some frost in some of our western counties late Thursday night/Friday morning. Back to today, expect an uptick of convection late this morning and early afternoon across southeast NE, then spreading into southwest IA. Frontal boundary early this morning generally extends from the TX panhandle into southeast NE and then toward northern IA. Dewpoints south of the front are in the 60s. Will have the warmest highs in our area in the far southeast corner of the state, with most of our area seeing highs in the 40s or 50s. The ESRL HRRR model has not been available since yesterday morning, but the operational HRRR does show that trend mentioned. Heaviest rain should be in that area, so will keep the Flood Watch going there. Did trim some of the Flood Watch on the western edge where amounts the past few days have been much lighter, even though rain amounts today could be half an inch to an inch. The flood risk in most of northeast NE appears to be pretty low. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Generally adjusted precipitation chances downward a little for Thursday night into Friday. A fairly weak disturbance will be moving through the region with some potential for rain or a rain/snow mix, but no accumulation expected at this time. Adjusted precipitation chances upward a bit for Saturday into Sunday as a stronger system moves through the area, with remnants of Sergio moisture. Temperatures will remain quite cool from Friday through Monday with highs in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A surface low over south-central KS as of midday will develop rapidly north-northeast through southeast NE and southwest IA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent ahead of the low and an accompanying mid-level disturbance will yield widespread showers at the TAF sites this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are possible at KOMA and KLNK beginning about 20z or 21z. Visibilities at or below a mile and variably gusts winds will accompany the strongest storms. With the passage of the low pressure to the east of the area this evening, winds will strengthen from the northwest with decreasing precipitation chances. IFR ceilings will linger. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NEZ034-044-045-051>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for IAZ043-055-056-069-079- 080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Mead