864 
FXUS66 KMTR 110948
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
248 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Moist onshore flow will result in seasonably cool 
weather conditions into Thursday. Weak offshore flow will then 
develop late in the week resulting in warmer and drier conditions 
regionwide through the weekend if not into next week as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:48 AM PDT Thursday...Satellite imagery 
shows a low clouds have spread inland from the coastal waters, 
covering a good portion of the CWA. Current temperatures are 
similar to those from yesterday at this time and are mostly in the
50s. 

Continued weak onshore flow will keep temperatures on the cool
side today. By Friday, a weak offshore flow will set up resulting
in some gusty breezes in the north Bay hills, and a bit of a
warming trend that will extend into the weekend to early next
week. By Sunday and Monday, warmest inland areas could see high
temps around 90 degrees. Near-coastal areas are expected to warm
to the upper 60s to mid 70s. 

Wind speeds will increase tonight and Friday morning with gusts 
up to 30-35 mph in the higher elevations of Napa and eastern 
Sonoma Counties and 20-25 mph in the other North Bay Mountains and
East Bay Hills. Winds will decrease Friday night but may increase
again Saturday night and Sunday morning as another disturbance
moves into the Great Basin. Winds are not expected to be strong 
enough to prompt any wind or fire weather advisories, however, 
relative humidity values will lower during the weekend as the 
persistent offshore flow dries out the airmass.

Dry weather to persist through the forecast period as a ridge of
high pressure builds in over the west. 

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:25 PM Wednesday...For 06z tafs. Stratus has
now become more widespread with MVFR to IFR cigs at KSTS, KMRY and
KSNS. IFR/MVFr cigs will continue into the morning between around
16z-18z. Still expecting KSJC and KLVK to remain VFR through the
period. Winds will remain light overnight before increasing and
turning onshore tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR prevailing. Brief MVFR cigs possible 
around sunrise tomorrow morning. Light winds overnight turning 
onshore and increasing to around 15 kt tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR. Expecting cigs to lower
to become borderline IFR overnight. Clearing currently forecast 
between 17z-18z. 

&&

.BEACHES...Tropical storm Sergio will bring moderate period and
height swell to the Central California and Bay Area coastlines
beginning Thursday morning. Exposed south facing beaches will be
at highest risk for building surf. Some breakers may reach as high
as 10 feet with 10 to 20 minute lulls between sets. All beaches
will experience an increase in rip current activity during the
second half of the week as this swell arrives and transits the
area. Therefore, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued from
early Thursday morning through late Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:28 AM PDT Thursday...Winds will be mainly light
across the coastal waters into the weekend. The southerly swell 
generated by Tropical Storm Sergio will increase today into Friday
before subsiding by evening.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: Canepa

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