730 FXUS64 KMRX 110743 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 343 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)... Tropical storm Michael is moving northeast across central/southern Georgia into the Carolina's with a frontal boundary over the Plateau. The circulation around Michael is interacting with a trough axis producing a deformation zone over east Tennessee. Models and high resolution models show this deformation zone strengthening early this morning which will enhance the precipitation over the eastern half of the area, especially near the North Carolina state-line. Have include heavy rain wording there for the morning hours. Localized flash flooding is possible, but no planning on a flood watch. Circulation around Michael is strong east of the Appalachians, but weaker and becoming northwest of our area. GSP will issue a Tropical Storm Warning for winds but not expected over the Smoky Mountain NP or Cherokee Forest. Band of rain and cloud cover lifts northeast late morning and afternoon with clearing anticipated. Some low clouds and drizzle/light rain anticipated over southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee Mountains this evening, otherwise clearing sky and much cooler air-mass. .Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)... Fall temperatures will finally arrive to start the long-term forecast period. Lows on Friday and Saturday mornings will be in the 40s across most of the area with upper 30s possible in some of the sheltered valleys across NE TN and SW VA. These temperatures will be a significant change from lows in the 60s and 70s earlier this week. Highs Friday and Saturday will only be in the 60s with cold air advection and high pressure moving in behind the departing cold front. There will be a fast moving upper level system that will move across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region late Friday into early Saturday. There may be enough moisture for a light shower or two across extreme NE TN and SW VA but expect most areas will remain dry. The surface ridge will shift to the east of the area on Sunday as weak southerly flow returns to the area. Moisture associated with what remains of Pacific Tropical Storm Sergio will move into the area along with a surface front late Sunday into early Monday. PoPs will be on the increase early next week as this boundary moves in. Models indicate that the boundary will be oriented from SW to NE. As the upper level trough lifts out late Sunday, upper level flow will be from the southwest. Due to this, the boundary will stall near the area keeping elevated chances for precipitation throughout much of the early part of next week. With the front slowing, it looks like there will be the chance for a few rumbles of thunder across southern portions of the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 47 68 48 / 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 45 65 46 / 80 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 45 66 46 / 60 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 42 62 43 / 100 10 0 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$