433 
FXUS64 KMRX 101856
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)...Hurricane Michael will 
weaken as it tracks northeast well to our southeast as a frontal 
boundary moves in from our west.  Moisture will stream into our 
area, and some moderate to heavy rain is expected tonight into the 
first part of Thursday.  With the fairly quick movement of this 
system, the risk of widespread flooding looks limited.  However, 
localized flooding will be possible and will be mentioned in the 
HWO.  Some gusty winds can be expected as well especially over the 
higher elevations later tonight into Thursday, but the threat of 
gusts above 40 mph looks too limited even in the higher elevations 
for a wind advisory at this point. Rain will exit fairly quickly 
from southwest to northeast late tonight and tomorrow morning, with 
clearing not far behind.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)... At the 
beginning of this period T.S. Michael should be accelerating to 
the northeast and the precip should be all but ended in our CWA. 
As Michael passes through the Carolinas, it will draw in a cold 
front from the west and we will start a sudden cool-down Thursday 
night--Finally Fall will Arrive. So instead of Min Temps in the 
60s, we will start having Max Temps in the 60s most days.

For Friday and Saturday, surface high pressure builds in and we will 
have a couple of nice Fall days.  By around Sunday, the fragmented 
remnants from Pacific Tropical Storm Sergio will be racing through 
the area, but with limited moisture.

After Sergio passes, we will have another cold front pass through 
and will bring in stronger high pressure that will cool down the 
area again for next week.  

During this whole time we will be under the overall influence of an 
eastern North America upper trough.  Even though surface high 
pressure will be building in next week, upper level disturbances 
racing through the trough should give us a few more chances of light 
rain or showers, with minimal chances of thunder as instability 
never materializes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  75  47  67 / 100  30   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  74  46  65 / 100  70   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  74  45  65 / 100  60   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  73  43  63 / 100 100  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/GM