459 FXUS64 KMRX 091847 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 247 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)...Moisture will increase as Hurricane Michael draws closer. We will be in a southeast flow that will be downsloping into much of the valley, so this should limit precipitation for much of the area during the short term period. Will have highest PoPs in the eastern mountains later tonight into Wednesday. Expect some gusty winds in the higher elevations as the low level winds increase, but at this point looks winds will not be strong enough to warrant a wind advisory. However, will mention the gusty winds in the HWO. Will generally use a MAV/MET blend to adjust temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)... There has not much change to the forecast reasoning in regard to the impacts from Michael across the area. The NHC forecast track across GA and SC Wednesday night and Thursday will keep significant wind/rain impacts well to our south. Outer bands are expected to rotate into southern portions of our area starting Wednesday night, while a southeasterly donwslope flow will continue to suppress rainfall across the central and northern Valley until winds shift to a more northerly direction on Thursday morning. At that time a cold front will be entering our western sections, and the interaction of the front with the abundant moisture may produce a period of heavy rainfall Thursday morning. With both the front and Michael moving through fairly quickly and dry preceding soil conditions, we should avoid widespread flooding problems. Rain amounts in the 1-2 inch range are expected in the mountains, with 0.5-1 inch across most other spots on average. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range may be possible Thursday as the front moves through. As a Canadian high pressure system settles into the Midwest, fall- like temperatures will finally make an appearance on Friday and continue into Saturday, with morning lows in the mid to upper 40s, and afternoon highs in the mid to uper 60s both days. As an upper trough deepens over the Rockies and a surface low develops over the southern Plains, we will see high temps return to the 70s on Sunday as well as a chance of rain returning with isentropic lift over a warm front. The model blend brings precip with the eastward-tracking low into our area on Monday, and will have PoPs in the high chance range that day. High pressure behind the cold front builds in on Tueday, bringing another surge of cooler air. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 82 70 76 / 40 40 100 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 84 69 73 / 30 30 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 69 74 / 40 30 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 80 68 71 / 20 30 60 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/DGS