987 FXUS63 KMQT 092357 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 757 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 313 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 ...Periods of heavy rain could result in flooding... Primary concern for tonight through late tomorrow will be the copious amounts of rain forecast to come into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Atmospheric moisture content (PWATs) has been far exceeding climatological norms for early to mid October, and near/greater than the daily max (from the GRB upper-air site). This well-advertised event continues to remain on track for this forecast issuance, with refinements made to QPF amounts. Locations within the Flood Watch continue to be where the heaviest precip axis is slated to occur tonight, with an additional 2 to 3+ inches expected, on top of what has already fallen. The eastern half of the U.P. has seen a break from the precip, as well as some locations in the central and western portions. However, radar imagery has been depicting the rain to be filling back in area-wide, with much more developing and on the way ahead of an approaching low. Ample moisture transport aligned with convergence zone overhead, and a boost for lifting from the deepening low and its attendant trough axis, all coupled with continuing WAA and a hint of instability is setting the stage for efficient rain to fall tonight. As mentioned yesterday, there is a secondary concern for trees to potentially come down, given how saturated the grounds are with all of the recent rain, and more to come. Locations along the shorelines of western Lake Superior into the Keweenaw Peninsula should be aware of the possibility of any stronger wind gusts moving in tonight/tomorrow having the potential to unset trees with weakened roots. Winds will be on the increase, particularly across the Lake Superior waters, but winds on land will also be on the increase. Although no headlines are anticipated at this time since winds are forecast to remain below the criteria for a Wind Advisory, the nearshore locations, particularly along the tip of the Keweenaw, could experience higher gusts as compared to locations further inland. The increased wind threat will shift to the eastern shorelines tomorrow night into Thursday. In spite of ample WAA aloft, the cloud cover and rain has moderated temps quite a bit, forcing a lack of too much movement between the highs and lows for most of the U.P. The warmest locations have, and will continue to be through tomorrow, the south-central and eastern half of Upper Michigan where there has been some breaks in the cloud cover and rain. Lows tonight will range in the 40s to lower 50s, with highs tomorrow remaining in the 40s for many locations across the west, but rising into the 60s where warmer air is able to advect and mix down in the south and east. Cooler temps arrive tomorrow night with the passage of a cold front, ranging from the 30s to 40s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 317 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 As the main system continues to exit the region Thursday into Friday, lingering upper-level energy and cooler air working in behind the system will allow for lingering lake-effect precipitation Thursday. It does appear Thursday morning will start off with some deeper moisture and cold enough temperatures aloft to support some snow flakes mixing in with lingering rain, before transitioning over towards lingering drizzle. Thursday evening into Friday, cold air advection will strengthen and allow for lingering drizzle to switch over to light lake effect snow showers primarily inland from the Great Lakes across the northwest to west wind snow belts. Right now it doesn't appear that the magnitude of the cold air advection and resulting lake-induced stability will be strong enough to support much in the way of accumulating snow. On Friday into Saturday, low- level flow will back west to southwest and 850mb temperatures will warm; therefore, expect any lingering lake effect precipitation to weaken if not diminish, for what appears to be a dry afternoon/evening across much of the area. Saturday through early next week, we will remain in an active pattern with numerous shortwaves tracking across the region late Saturday through Monday, and another system progged to arrive towards the middle of next week. Saturday looks to be the warmest day within the extended as the warm noise lifts northeast across the Upper Peninsula ahead of the leading shortwave, otherwise temperatures look to remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year with afternoon highs only climbing into the 40s. As these systems move through the region, periodic chances for rain are expected across the Upper Peninsula late Saturday through early/middle next week, especially near Lake Superior. Behind the exiting systems, depending on how strong the cold air advection is we could see linger chances for lake effect rain/snow showers, with snow showers especially likely during the overnight hours inland from the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 756 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 IFR conditions at KIWD and KCMX are expected to gradually lower this evening. Otherwise, abundant low level moisture over the region north of a frontal boundary and low pressure system will support mainly LIFR conditions through the forecast period with periods of rain. There may be brief periods where conditions drop below vsby minimums at KSAW but any periods should be brief and less likely as heavier rain moves back in late this evening into Wednesday morning. As the low approaches, northeast winds will become gusty at KIWD and KCMX. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Winds will pick up substantially tonight into tomorrow, with the western half of Lake Superior seeing the highest winds tonight, followed by the east half on Thursday. This is due to the approach and passage of a deepening low pressure system that will be crossing the Upper Great Lakes. These periods of increased winds through tomorrow evening have been highlighted in a Gale Warning, with an additional warning possible for the east half on Thursday. Sustained winds out of the NE tonight will start out in the 20-30 knot range, then increase to near/above 34 knots for the western half tomorrow. Gusts will approach 45 knots, with brief, localized gusts exceeding storm force possible. Greater than gale force gusts will persist into tomorrow night, with the focus shifting to the eastern half by Thursday, as mentioned. As the low passes across, expect the winds to swing around to out of the NW by Thursday. Winds will likely remain elevated into early Friday, before the pressure gradient slackens over the region. Look for less than 20 knot winds to prevail through the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MIZ001>006-009>013-084. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ266. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162- 263-264. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...lg LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...JLB MARINE...lg