983 FXUS63 KMPX 111044 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 544 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The storm system that brought rain, breezy conditions, and some light snow, was rapidly moving north of the Great Lakes region. Much cooler air aided in the development of light snow during the evening in central Minnesota, and flurries as far south as Redwood Falls, New Ulm, and Fairmont after midnight. Regional satellite imagery did show an enhancement of colder cloud tops across southwest Minnesota which produced the flurry activity overnight. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flurries across southern Minnesota during the pre dawn hours, the bulk of the snow will hold in northern Minnesota where the deeper moisture and the upper air circulation was noted. The persistent clouds, cold air advection, and snow cover in northwest Minnesota, should aid in keeping temperatures from rising too much today. A few breaks in the cloud cover is likely in the far southwest later this afternoon, but the bulk of southern Minnesota should remain cloudy all day. The next storm system should slide southwest of Minnesota late tonight, keeping any chances of precipitation well south of our region. Temperatures tonight could be tricky depending upon the amount of cloud cover holding on or some clearing. If more clouds hold on across the state, temperatures will only drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. If skies become mostly clear, temperatures could fall into the low to mid 20s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 We'll start with the good news, there's light at the end of the tunnel for ending the cool, cloudy, and dreary weather, though not until the middle of next week. We'll be dry most of the long term period, but we'll remain below normal on temperatures with mainly cloudy skies through Tuesday of next week. We finally look to get an airmass change for the second half of next week that will bring in both milder and less cloudy weather. For Friday through Tuesday, we'll be under the influence of the longwave trough that is over us now. We will see waves pass nearby Friday, Saturday, and again Monday night. However, the Friday one will pass off to our south, with the Saturday and Monday night ones looking to stay off to our north, with little if any precip expected in the MPX CWA, which is welcome news for farmers who have seen harvesting activities essentially put on hold since the end of September when we entered this very wet pattern. For temperatures, the warm day will be Saturday as we see a thermal ridge build in ahead of an area of low pressure going across the international border. There's certainly potential we could see highs a good 5 degrees warmer than what we currently have for Saturday, but with uncertainties about timing of the thermal ridge and degree of cloud cover, stuck with the consensus forecast for now. We will see a strong cold front pass Saturday afternoon/evening, with 925-850mb temps crashing Saturday night. Saturday night into Sunday looks to be a repeat of last night into today, with blustery northwest winds and highs remaining in the 30s on Sunday. This cold air will be slow to move out Monday, with highs again expected in the upper 30s/lower 40s, while another dry cold front passage Monday night will keep the cool air in place for Tuesday as well. Beyond Tuesday, there are still discrepancies with how quickly ridging across the Rockies builds out into the Plains. The Canadian keeps the cold air entrenched across the upper MS Valley until Friday, but the GFS has started shifting toward the faster ECMWF, with bringing the influence of the ridge across the high Plains on Wednesday. By Thursday, the ECMWF has h85 temps in excess of 12C across the area, which would bring widespread highs in the 60s with sunny skies if the forecast it has shown now for the last 3 runs continues to hold. This far out, stayed with a consensus forecast for temperatures Wed/Thu, but highs both of these days could end up several degrees warmer than what we currently have. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 High confidence that MVFR cigs, with patchy IFR cigs will continue through 18z across most of Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Cigs will begin to lift to VFR in southwest, south central Minnesota during the afternoon, with a slow trend of these higher cigs moving back northward during the evening. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected other than a few flurries/sprinkles this morning. Gusty west-northwest winds will continue through the afternoon, before decreasing and backing to the west by morning. KMSP... High confidence that the MVFR cigs will continue through the afternoon, and early evening. Lower confidence if cigs lower to 1.7 kft before noon. A few flurries early with no precipitation after 15z. VFR conditions are expected late tonight with winds decreasing and becoming west toward dawn. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri Evening...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. Sat...VFR. Wind SW at 15G20 kts, bcmg W. Sun...VFR. Wind NW at 10G15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for MNZ073>078- 082>085-091>093. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...JLT