657 FXUS63 KMPX 102359 AAA AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 659 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The surface low that has brought an early winter storm to the northern plains and flooding to the upper Mississippi valley finally departs over Lake Superior this evening. Quiet and drier, but much cooler weather moves in behind the low to end the week. This afternoon, the southern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin sits firmly in the dry slot of the deepening surface low centered just east of the Twin Cities metro. Widespread drizzle and low cloud cover has been persistent in this dry slot this afternoon, keeping highs in the 40s across most of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin have remained in the warm sector of this cyclone and have managed to warm into the upper 60s under southerly winds and less cloud cover. As the low begins to occlude, wrap around precipitation on the back side of the low will become more widespread across the northern half of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very chilly air for early October moves in tonight on the back side of this low as well which will result in a rain/snow mix developing later this evening. Little to no accumulation is expected with this snow, except perhaps a slushy dusting on grassy surfaces around Alexandria where temperatures will be cold enough for a period of only snow to fall. Wrap-around precipitation should be out of the area by sunrise tomorrow, but plenty of moisture trapped below the inversion at 850 mb should keep widespread cloud cover in place for most of tomorrow. Thursday will be more typical of late- November with brisk northwest winds and widespread cloud cover keeping temperatures from rising out of the 30s in most areas. Gusty northwest winds will make these temperatures feel extra brisk with parts of northwest and west-central Minnesota waking up to wind chills in the teens and not warming much above the low 20s during the afternoon. Fear not however, for skies will begin to clear out late Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds at the surface. This may result in our first peaks at the Sun since last week, although Friday looks to be a much sunnier day. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Fairly active northwest flow pattern continues through the long term period. This will bring a series of cold fronts across the area along with some small chance for precipitation. Initially, we have high pressure moving across the area Thursday night into Friday. Cold temepratures and light winds should provide a hard freeze for the entire CWA during this period. Lower clouds should exit to the east in the evening with perhaps some mid/high level clouds affecting the region as an upper trough moves through. The next cold front/upper trough moves into the area Saturday with a little warmer air trying to work out ahead of the system. We may see some sunshine early in the day, but the cold front sweeps through during the day ushering in colder air and a small chance of a rain/snow mix across the northern CWA then. Blustery and cold conditions will prevail through the weekend. The long term deterministic models diverge some on the amplitude of the next trough for Tuesday/Wednesday period. The GFS is colder and does provide another chance for a rain/snow mix. Temperatures through the period look to range some 10 degrees below normal. However, both models begin to show some moderation late next week as the eastern CONUS trough translates east allowing some western CONUS ridging to move farther east into the high plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 IFR conditions will continue this evening with drizzle across most of the area, and snow across western MN. May see some LIFR conditions briefly this evening near AXN due to visibility. Cigs and visibilities will improve late tonight as the low finally pulls away to the northeast and drier air begins to move in. KMSP...Mostly IFR through 08Z, then we should begin to turn the corner with gradually improving conditions thereafter. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri...VFR. Wind W 10G15 kts. Sat...VFR. Wind SW at 15G20 kts, bcmg W. Sun...VFR. Wind NW at 10G15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ETA LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...Borghoff