883 FXUS63 KMPX 102018 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The surface low that has brought an early winter storm to the northern plains and flooding to the upper Mississippi valley finally departs over Lake Superior this evening. Quiet and drier, but much cooler weather moves in behind the low to end the week. This afternoon, the southern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin sits firmly in the dry slot of the deepening surface low centered just east of the Twin Cities metro. Widespread drizzle and low cloud cover has been persistent in this dry slot this afternoon, keeping highs in the 40s across most of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin have remained in the warm sector of this cyclone and have managed to warm into the upper 60s under southerly winds and less cloud cover. As the low begins to occlude, wrap around precipitation on the back side of the low will become more widespread across the northern half of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very chilly air for early October moves in tonight on the back side of this low as well which will result in a rain/snow mix developing later this evening. Little to no accumulation is expected with this snow, except perhaps a slushy dusting on grassy surfaces around Alexandria where temperatures will be cold enough for a period of only snow to fall. Wrap-around precipitation should be out of the area by sunrise tomorrow, but plenty of moisture trapped below the inversion at 850 mb should keep widespread cloud cover in place for most of tomorrow. Thursday will be more typical of late- November with brisk northwest winds and widespread cloud cover keeping temperatures from rising out of the 30s in most areas. Gusty northwest winds will make these temperatures feel extra brisk with parts of northwest and west-central Minnesota waking up to wind chills in the teens and not warming much above the low 20s during the afternoon. Fear not however, for skies will begin to clear out late Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds at the surface. This may result in our first peaks at the Sun since last week, although Friday looks to be a much sunnier day. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Fairly active northwest flow pattern continues through the long term period. This will bring a series of cold fronts across the area along with some small chance for precipitation. Initially, we have high pressure moving across the area Thursday night into Friday. Cold temepratures and light winds should provide a hard freeze for the entire CWA during this period. Lower clouds should exit to the east in the evening with perhaps some mid/high level clouds affecting the region as an upper trough moves through. The next cold front/upper trough moves into the area Saturday with a little warmer air trying to work out ahead of the system. We may see some sunshine early in the day, but the cold front sweeps through during the day ushering in colder air and a small chance of a rain/snow mix across the northern CWA then. Blustery and cold conditions will prevail through the weekend. The long term deterministic models diverge some on the amplitude of the next trough for Tuesday/Wednesday period. The GFS is colder and does provide another chance for a rain/snow mix. Temperatures through the period look to range some 10 degrees below normal. However, both models begin to show some moderation late next week as the eastern CONUS trough translates east allowing some western CONUS ridging to move farther east into the high plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 LIFR to low-end IFR ceilings will continue through the overnight hours, with steady drizzle reducing visibility to the IFR/MVFR range as well. Drizzle will change over to a light rain/snow mix from west to east later this afternoon, with central Minnesota terminals as well as RNH possibly seeing some flakes around midnight tonight. No accumulation is expected, except possibly at AXN which will be cold enough to see precipitation fall primarily as snow and may end up with a slushy dusting. Winds will be start off the period light and variable with the surface low overhead, becoming westerly/northwesterly and gusty later this afternoon. Precipitation will be out of the area by sunrise tomorrow with ceilings lifting to MVFR during the morning. KMSP...Expect LIFR ceilings to continue into mid-afternoon, improving slightly to low-end IFR by this evening. Light drizzle will continue into the overnight hours with IFR/MVFR visibilities expected. Some light snow may mix in with the drizzle towards midnight tonight but no accumulation is expected. Ceilings gradually clear tomorrow with ceilings above the 017 threshold possible by late morning & VFR possible by the end of the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri...VFR. Wind W 10G15 kts. Sat...VFR. Wind SW at 15G20 kts, bcmg W. Sun...VFR. Wind NW at 10G15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ETA LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...ETA