187 FXUS63 KMPX 101043 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 543 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A surface low was centered along the Minnesota, Iowa border near Albert Lea early this morning. Temperatures managed to rise into the 60s where winds shifted to the south overnight. This was noted around Albert Lea where the 3 am temperature was 64 degrees. Only 25-50 miles to the west, low to mid 40s are noted. Otherwise, most areas are still in the 40s with a persistent north/northeast wind. The heavier precipitation has ended this morning, and with no additional heavy rainfall expected, the flood watch was cancelled. Regional satellite and radar depicted that a significant dry slot moved northward overnight with most areas only receiving occasional light drizzle or light rain as 330 am. Most of the large scale forcing had moved into northern Minnesota, and the eastern Dakotas. Some areas of eastern South Dakota and eastern North Dakota had precipitation change over to light snow, but it was still raining in northern Minnesota. The surface low is expected to move slowly northward this morning. This will allow temperatures to rise into the 50s/60s in portions of southeast Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. Elsewhere, temperatures may rise a degree or two, but by the mid/late afternoon winds will shift to the west/northwest and usher in much colder air. As the low moves off to the northeast, and the main upper low moves from the Plains, and into the Upper Midwest, precipitation will once again increase across western Minnesota by the afternoon. The precipitation will change over to a mixture of rain/snow from Montevideo, to Alexandria by the late afternoon. This area of precipitation will spread across the remainder of central Minnesota where some areas may receive up to an inch of snowfall overnight. Otherwise, occasional drizzle, mixed with light snow will be possible across the rest of southern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin tonight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A much quieter long term period is in store, with no major storm systems expected. Temperatures will remain well below through the first half of next week, with moderation in temperatures finally expected toward the end of next week. The models are in good agreement on the large scale pattern through Tuesday of next week with an amplified flow remaining in place, with us being on the cold side of a northwest jet for most of the time. Where differences in the large scale come in is for the second half of next week with how far east the influence of a building western ridge makes it, with the ECMWF continuing be faster in pushing the cold air out than the GEFS/GFS. Of course within this large scale flow there are embedded shortwaves with less agreement, which leads to lower confidence on things like precip chances, but overall, confidence remains high that we'll remain well below normal on temperatures through at least Wednesday of next week. Thursday continues to look cold, cloudy, and breezy as we continue to reside within the cyclonic flow of the low that is approaching southern MN this morning. Like the previous forecast, upped sky cover for Thursday, keeping it cloudy and nudged highs down some, with most folks likely staying in the 30s for highs. Normal highs for this point in October are around 60, so these highs will be a good 20 degrees below normal. By Thursday morning, any wrap around precip will be northeast of the MPX area, so Thursday at least looks dry. Next shortwave arrives Friday, though it looks to be dry. We do finally get out of cyclonic flow on Friday and will clear out the low clouds, but the shortwave moving through will keep a lot of mid/high clouds around, so we still may not see much of the sun. For the weekend, models continue to show a strong clipper type system working through the long wave trough across the center of NOAM, though models are starting to settle on a northern solution for this wave, with the majority of the precip falling in northern MN. The MPX area will get into the warm sector of this system and Saturday will be the closest we get to normal over the next week, with highs getting back up into the 50s as far north as I-94. Behind the cold front with this system though is another strong burst of CAA. By Sunday afternoon, 925-850mb temps are progged to be similar to what we will see Thursday (around -4C), which means Sunday, highs will likely remain in the 30s for most locations. In fact, this cold air looks to hang around through Monday, with highs Monday likely struggling to hit 40 as well. Next shortwave in the train arrives Tuesday. Model-to-model and run- to-run consistency with this wave has been low, so there's low confidence on where precip will end up with this, but given temperatures, it would have a rain/snow mix with it. Although differences exist with how quickly the cold air gets pushed out of there, by the weekend of the 20th, we will have a milder airmass in place, with temperatures returning back to near normal (50s by then). && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Most of central/southern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin will have IFR/LIFR cigs, with some low end MVFR cigs through 18z. The worst cigs, or conditions will likely occur in southeast/east central Minnesota through 18z as weak mixing and the surface low moves overhead. Cigs are below minimums already at Waseca/Owatonna, with Lakeville at 300'. Precipitation should stay light with occasional drizzle/light rain with vsbys in the IFR/MVFR range. Precipitation will begin to change over to light snow at KAXN after 22z, with a period of IFR and -SN this evening. Elsewhere, cigs will remain IFR with gusty west/northwest winds developing. KMSP... Cigs will hold in the IFR range through the forecast period, with LIFR possible this morning as the surface low moves overhead. Winds should start from the northeast, but become light and variable through the early afternoon before shifting to the west. Gusty winds will develop by the late afternoon with stronger winds this evening from the northwest. Precipitation should stay all liquid until later this evening, but temperatures will remain above freezing if light snow develops. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...MVFR cigs. Wind NW 15G25 kts. Fri...VFR. Wind W 10G15 kts. Sat...VFR. Wind SW at 15G20 kts, bcmg W. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...JLT