586 FXUS63 KMPX 091742 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .updated for 18z taf discussion below... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Regional radar had showed that most of the measurable precipitation overnight shifted off to the northeast. Some drizzle, fog, and light rain continued in the early morning hours, but the bulk of the heavier activity had ended. The main forecast change today was to cancel a part of the flood watch in Minnesota. The cancellation was due to the heaviest rainfall axis shifting further to the east. A surface front had moved into southeast Minnesota, and east of Eau Claire, Wisconsin overnight. Regional satellite imagery did show the main storm system in southwest Texas with a broad area of storms rotating northward ahead of this system. Although this system will begin to move out into the Plains today, the surface front will likely hold nearly stationary in southeast Minnesota until late this afternoon, or early evening. Thus, temperatures will likely only rise a few degrees from morning lows. Strong cyclogenesis is expected later today as the storm system moves out into the Plains, and into the Midwest. As the system begins to intensify, surface winds will increase from the north/northeast. These winds will likely continue to increase this evening as the surface low deepens. In addition, winds will begin to back in south central/southeast Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin in response to the deepening low in Iowa. Thus, the surface front will move back northward and cause surface temperatures to rise overnight in southeast Minnesota, west central Wisconsin. This is also the time period that several rounds of thunderstorms are expected, especially along and east of this frontal boundary. I wouldn't be surprised to see rainfall rates increase in the warm sector to around 1 to 1.5 inches per hour. Overall, this morning will see areas of light rain or drizzle, but nothing to heavy. Later this afternoon, a larger area of precipitation is expected as the storm system moves out into the Plains. By this evening, periods of rain will occur, with thunderstorms also increasing in areal coverage and intensity. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Northwest Minnesota will get a few inches of snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Alexandria, Little Falls, and Morris could see light accumulations on grassy surfaces. The rest of us could have a few flakes fall Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but no accumulations are expected. Looking ahead, cool and cloudy weather will continue. Thursday will be bitter with highs struggling to get out of the 30s. The reason being is that subfreezing H850 temps are already in place across the Dakotas, and this storm system will easily tap into that cold air and wrap it across Minnesota and Wisconsin for Thursday and Friday. Forecast soundings show a thick stratus deck atop the boundary layer, so increased clouds and lowered highs for both Thursday and Friday. Winds will be brisk out of the northwest around 20 to 25 mph on Thursday as well, and could see some flurries at times in the morning. There is a disagreement among the forecast models heading into the weekend and early next week. A clipper-like system will bring clouds and a chance of rain Saturday and Sunday. The GFS is more aggressive and farther west in the development of precip, while the ECMWF and GEM have the cyclogenesis farther southeast and keep the majority of the forecast area dry. At this time continued with a blended approach since all solutions seem equally plausible. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 IFR with LIFR conditions at times will continue. Heavier precipitation should develop later this afternoon into the overnight as widespread rain moves in with the developing surface low to the south. May even see some thunder later this evening. Highest threat of that will be to the east and included a prob30 for KEAU at this time. Winds will be northeasterly throughout, but should increase overnight and become more north/northwest into Wednesday morning, especially in western Minnesota. KMSP... IFR with LIFR conditions at times. May see a period of heavier precipitation this evening eventually tapering off into Wednesday morning. Northeast wind becoming more northwest into Wednesday afternoon with passage of surface low. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...MVFR cigs. Wind NW 15G25 kts. Fri...VFR. Wind W 10G15 kts. Sat...VFR. Wind S at 15G20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ014>016-023>028. MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MNZ062-063-069-070- 076>078-083>085-091>093. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...DWE