429 FXUS64 KMOB 110952 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 452 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Expect much cooler/drier air to settle in over the forecast area today and tonight in the wake of the first significant cold front that moves down across the deep south in the wake of Michael. Aloft the flow pattern becomes mostly zonal later today and tonight with a persistent upper ridge of high pressure still present over much of the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours. Most of the model output depict a tight pres gradient at the surface across the region generally from west to east through tonight, leading to a moderate northerly flow over the region later this morning through early tonight. With a persistent swell period at around 10 sec and swell heights around 3 ft, generally from the southeast, gradually decreasing through tonight, a high threat for dangerous rip currents will continue along the gulf beaches of Northwest Florida and Alabama through Fri afternoon. With the cooler /drier air advecting south across the region today and tonight day and nighttime temps will be near seasonal levels for the next 24 hours. Surface dewpoint temps also lower to the mid 50s over northern and western sections of the forecast area and the lower 60s near the coast and to the east making conditions feel more like fall through the next 24 hours. Highs today will range from the lower 80s to the north and west and the middle 80s to the east and along the the coast. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s over extreme northern sections of the forecast area and the mid to upper 50s further to the south, and the lower 60s along the immediate coast. 32/EE .SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A cooler and drier high pressure ridge will drift east across the region during the short term period. Mostly clear skies and no precipitation is expected Friday through Saturday night. Winds will shift from NNE-E-SE as the high drifts east to our north. Daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Nighttime lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and upper 60s to near 70 at the coast. 12/DS .LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...High pressure moves east late in the weekend with southerly flow developing. This will allow moisture levels to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Global models disagree on the timing of the next front with the GFS moving the front through on Monday with much drier air for midweek. The ECMWF is slower with the front not moving through until Wednesday. Due to the uncertainty, we have left a small rain chance in through mid week. 12/DS && .MARINE...A moderate to occasionaly strong offshore flow will continue over the marine area through early Fri then gradually diminish through early Sat. A light to moderate easterly flow will develop over the weekend then become mostly southeast by early next week ahead of a stronger cold front that is forecast to move across the region late in the week. Small craft should exercise caution today and tonight. 32/EE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 85 54 80 58 82 64 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pensacola 86 59 82 61 82 67 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Destin 86 62 82 64 82 68 84 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 84 52 79 55 80 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 80 49 78 54 79 60 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Camden 81 51 75 54 80 58 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Crestview 86 54 81 56 82 60 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for ALZ265- 266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ202- 204-206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob