327 FXUS64 KMOB 110346 AAB AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1046 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below. && .UPDATE...Winds across the Wind Advisory area have dropped below criteria, therefore the Wind Advisory was allowed to expire at 10 PM. High surf and dangerous rip currents will continue tonight, along with minor coastal flooding east of the Alabama and Florida state line, but much of the inundation has receded. Area radars are detecting that all of the rainfall has ended across the forecast area, but a sporadic light rain shower is still possible until around midnight across our far northeastern zones. Therefore, lowered precipitation chances and rainfall amounts through about 100 AM, followed by rainfree conditions through the remainder of the night. Updated public products have been sent. /22 && .MARINE...Winds across area bays and waterways have dropped below Small Craft Advisory criteria, therefore the advisory has been allowed to expire at 10 PM. However, small craft should exercise caution overnight into early Thursday morning. Winds and seas across the gulf waters will fall below small craft advisory later this evening, and updated products will be issued shortly after midnight. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Northeast moving Hurricane Michael will continue to bring moderate north-west to northerly winds and VFR conditions to area TAF sites. Rain from Michael has generally moved will east of our TAF sites, with a few light shra well north of the coast. These shra are not expected to be strong enough or close enough to affect the KMOB, KPNS, and KBFM TAF sites. /16 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...The western edge of the rain with Hurricane Michael will move eastward out of the area tonight as Michael moves into southern Georgia. All the tropical products will be dropped with this package. However,due to the gusty winds lingering across eastern areas, a wind advisory will be issued. In addition, high surf and dangerous rip currents will continue tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the area on Thursday. The first true fall airmass moves into the area in the wake of the front. A few scattered showers are possible with the front, however most areas will remain dry. Highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s inland to mid 80s across the southeast. Humidity levels will be much lower as drier air moves into the area. /13 SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Cooler and drier conditions will continue through the weekend as high pressure builds across the area. Thursday night will be much cooler with lows in the low 50s inland to upper 50s and low 60s along the coast. Friday and Saturday will be near perfect with upper 70s to near 80 for highs along with clear skies and light northerly winds. Lows will be similar Friday night before moderating slightly Saturday night. /13 LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...High pressure moves east late in the weekend with southerly flow developing. This will allow moisture levels to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Global models disagree on the timing of the front with the GFS moving the front through on Monday with much drier air for midweek. The ECMWF is slower with the front not moving through until Wednesday. Due to the uncertainty, we have left a small rain chance in through mid week. /13 MARINE...Winds and seas will gradually decrease through tonight as Hurricane Michael moves away from the area. Northerly flow continues through the end of the week becoming easterly over the weekend. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob