318 
FXUS64 KMOB 102330 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Northeast moving Hurricane Michael will continue to
bring moderate north-west to northerly winds and VFR conditions 
to area TAF sites. Rain from Michael has generally moved will east
of our TAF sites, with a few light shra well north of the coast.
These shra are not expected to be strong enough or close enough to
affect the KMOB, KPNS, and KBFM TAF sites.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...The western edge of the rain
with Hurricane Michael will move eastward out of the area tonight
as Michael moves into southern Georgia. All the tropical products
will be dropped with this package. However,due to the gusty winds
lingering across eastern areas, a wind advisory will be issued. 
In addition, high surf and dangerous rip currents will continue 
tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the area on 
Thursday. The first true fall airmass moves into the area in the 
wake of the front. A few scattered showers are possible with the 
front, however most areas will remain dry. Highs will be in the 
upper 70s and low 80s inland to mid 80s across the southeast. 
Humidity levels will be much lower as drier air moves into the 
area. /13

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Cooler and
drier conditions will continue through the weekend as high
pressure builds across the area. Thursday night will be much
cooler with lows in the low 50s inland to upper 50s and low 60s
along the coast. Friday and Saturday will be near perfect with 
upper 70s to near 80 for highs along with clear skies and light 
northerly winds. Lows will be similar Friday night before 
moderating slightly Saturday night. /13

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...High pressure moves east
late in the weekend with southerly flow developing. This will
allow moisture levels to increase ahead of an approaching cold
front. Global models disagree on the timing of the front with the
GFS moving the front through on Monday with much drier air for
midweek. The ECMWF is slower with the front not moving through
until Wednesday. Due to the uncertainty, we have left a small rain
chance in through mid week. /13

MARINE...Winds and seas will gradually decrease through tonight
as Hurricane Michael moves away from the area. Northerly flow
continues through the end of the week becoming easterly over the
weekend. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ058-060.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ205-206.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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