607 FXUS64 KMOB 101019 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 519 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Hurricane Michael now a cat 4 continues to move northward progged to turn northeast between 09z and 12z this morning. Main impact from this system will be hurricane force winds affecting extreme eastern sections of Okaloosa Co in NWFL along with possible gusts to hurricane force over remaining areas of Okaloosa Co stretching west over lower sections of Santa Rosa and Escambia Co's in NWFL. These impacts will likley occur later this morning and continue through early to late afternoon. Minor coastal flooding of 1.5 to 2.5 ft will also continue for the coastal areas of NWFL and AL through most of this morning receding quickly later today as surface winds shift more to the northeast and north as Michael makes landfall further east near the Panama City/ Port St Joe area. Heavy rainfall is expected on the west side of Michael prompting a Flash Flood Watch also, occurring mainly over Okaloosa Co in NWFL stretching north into Covington Al. Further west Tropical Storm warnings continue for Mobile and Baldwin Co's in AL stretching northeast over remaining inland areas of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties in the NWFL and northward over south central AL generally along and east of the I-65 corridor or east of a line from Atmore to Greenville. Heavy surf conditions along the AL and NWFL immediate coast will also continue today and into early tonight resulting in a Heavy Surf Warning in these areas through tonight. Very dangerous Rip currents will also continue through tonight and likely into the later part of the week. Todays highs will continue to be slightly cooler than the last couple of days due to clouds, good mixing in the boundary layer and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, ranging from the middle 80s over the western half of the forecast area and the lower 80s to the east. Lows tonight will continue to be above seasonal norms ranging from the middle to upper 60s generally to the west and the lower to middle 70s along the coast and all other areas to the east. 32/ee .SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...As Hurricane Michael weakens and moves away from the area to the northeast, northwest flow along its rear flank helps push a cold front through the area from west to east during the day Thursday. This front will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass as we head into the weekend, our first real taste of nice weather in what has felt like a never- ending summer. Due to the cold front timing, high temps on Thursday will range from warmer (mid to upper 80s) east of I-65 and along the coast to cooler (upper 70s to low 80s) over inland areas west of I- 65. There's also a very slight chance for a lingering shower or thunderstorm over south-central Alabama on Thursday as the tropical moisture associated with Michael departs to the northeast. In the wake of the frontal passage, PWATs drop to a half inch and clouds move out, leaving sunny skies and low humidity. As a result, expect Thursday night to be much cooler than we've been in quite a while, with low 50s inland and mid to upper 50s along the coast. Friday will be a beautiful day, with clear skies, light north winds, and high temps around 80 near the coast and mid 70s inland. Friday night will still be cool as temps dip into the low to mid 50s across the area. /49 .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The weekend starts pleasant and dry as skies remain clear and high temps reach the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS and mid-Atlantic states to our northeast, reestablishing an east to southeasterly wind flow across the area by late in the day Saturday. It will take some time to bring a noticeable increase in moisture, so Saturday night stays cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm Sunday into Monday, however, with highs each afternoon in the mid 80s and lows Sunday night in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast. Another cold front pushes through on Monday, though this one appears to be a bit weaker and zonal flow aloft may prevent the drier continental airmass in its wake from reaching all the way to the coast. Weak lift occurring along the front and lingering moisture means rain chances return Monday and continue through the middle part of next week. Left chances low at this time, however, as a broad upper ridge building from the western Atlantic into the central Gulf could verify a bit farther north, which would put us closer to its center and increase overall subsidence. /49 && .MARINE...Hurricane warnings continue over the marine area from Pensacola to Destin out to 60 nm including inland bays and sounds with Tropical Storm Warnings also in effect for all remaining locations in the marine area from Pensacola to Pascagoula out to 60 nm, including inland and bays and sounds. Seas offshore are expected to build to 14 to 20 feet out to 20 nm and 20 to 29 feet from 20 to 60 nm out. Inland bays and sounds will continue to be very rough with wave heights ranging from 2 to 4 feet or slightly higher in exposed locations. Northerly winds will begin to diminish late today and tonight as Michael moves inland and tracks quickly to the northeast. 32/ee && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 84 70 85 55 80 55 81 62 / 50 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 82 74 85 60 79 60 80 66 / 80 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 81 75 84 63 79 62 80 68 / 100 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 82 71 83 54 77 53 80 59 / 80 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 67 79 52 76 52 78 56 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 84 71 81 53 76 53 79 57 / 60 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 80 74 87 55 79 55 80 60 / 100 60 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ056>060-263>266. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ060. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266. High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. FL...Hurricane Warning for FLZ202-204>206. Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ201-203. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ205-206. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202- 204-206. High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ634>636-655-675. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>633-650-670. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob