179 FXUS64 KMOB 100532 AAB AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 06Z issuance...Hurricane Michael continues to be the main item to deal with. Bands of rain offshore are approaching the coast on the western Florida Panhandle. The main deterioration in conditions are expected at KPNS towards sunrise and mid to late morning as one moves west from there. Tropical Storm conditions are highly possible at KPNS with a dropping in chances as one moves to TAF sites west from there. Drops to low end MVFR/IFR levels at KPNS are expected, with mainly MVFR level CIGs/VISBYs expected at KBFM and KMOB. This is dependent upon final path of Michael. Conditions are expected to improve at area TAF sites by the end of the current forecast. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 00Z issuance...For the current issuance, biggest item to deal with Hurricane Michael passing southeast of our TAF sites Wednesday into Wednesday night. General upper end MVFR CIGs and VISBYs will drop to low end MVFR levels, with KPNS seeing the greatest drop. Also, the closer the TAF site, the stronger the winds will be and last longer into Wednesday evening. Strongest winds for KMOB will peak early Wednesday afternoon, then slowly drop. KPNS is expected to have winds peak late afternoon/early evening. Areas east of KPNS will see lower cigs and higher winds. /16 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...09.12Z upper air analysis shows a continuation in the highly amplified early October geo- potential height field. Deep trof was migrating slowly eastward over the Rocky Mountains and Four Corners of the Desert southwest, while a downstream ridge was positioned over the eastern US, from the northeast US southward to the southeast. Over the eastern Gulf, Hurricane Michael has intensified to major (Category 3) hurricane strength per latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Michael is caught up in the deep southerly flow between the two large scale high level pressure systems previously mentioned; a northerly track continues tonight with a north-northeast bend in track, closing in on Panama city FL on Wednesday while maintaining major hurricane strength. Hurricane Michael should bring numerous dangerous impacts, especially locations in closest proximity to where the center makes landfall Wednesday. Refer to latest information on all Watch/Warning/Advisories for specific information on local impacts from Hurricane Michael via the National Weather Service Mobile/Pensacola Website => www.weather.gov/mob ./10 SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Michael begins to accelerate as it lifts northeast up into the southeast Wednesday night, moving across the Carolinas Thursday and Thursday night. A much drier and cooler airmass sweeps into the region behind the departing hurricane and following a cold frontal passage Thursday. A return to dry, less humid conditions can be expected along with temperatures falling off to more typical mid October values. /10 LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...High pressure centered over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Saturday, progresses quickly eastward to off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday with next front diving southeast out of the Plains late in the weekend. A chance of showers and storms return to the forecast Sunday and Monday with temperatures moderating to well above climatology. Temperatures lower back closer to seasonal by Tuesday in the wake of front, which will have surged deep into the Gulf then. /10 MARINE...Winds and seas will continue to significantly build as Major Hurricane Michael approaches the Northeast Gulf coast in the near term. Gusty winds in squalls along with rounds of very heavy rain can be expected tonight through Wednesday. Stay tuned for the very latest updates on Major Hurricane Michael. /10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ056>060-263>266. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ060. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266. FL...Hurricane Warning for FLZ202-204>206. Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ201-203. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ205-206. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ634>636-655-675. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>633-650-670. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob