348 FXUS64 KMOB 092141 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 441 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...09.12Z upper air analysis shows a continuation in the highly amplified early October geo- potential height field. Deep trof was migrating slowly eastward over the Rocky Mountains and Four Corners of the Desert southwest, while a downstream ridge was positioned over the eastern US, from the northeast US southward to the southeast. Over the eastern Gulf, Hurricane Michael has intensified to major (Category 3) hurricane strength per latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Michael is caught up in the deep southerly flow between the two large scale high level pressure systems previously mentioned; a northerly track continues tonight with a north-northeast bend in track, closing in on Panama city FL on Wednesday while maintaining major hurricane strength. Hurricane Michael should bring numerous dangerous impacts, especially locations in closest proximity to where the center makes landfall Wednesday. Refer to latest information on all Watch/Warning/Advisories for specific information on local impacts from Hurricane Michael via the National Weather Service Mobile/Pensacola Website => www.weather.gov/mob ./10 .SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Michael begins to accelerate as it lifts northeast up into the southeast Wednesday night, moving across the Carolinas Thursday and Thursday night. A much drier and cooler airmass sweeps into the region behind the departing hurricane and following a cold frontal passage Thursday. A return to dry, less humid conditions can be expected along with temperatures falling off to more typical mid October values. /10 .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...High pressure centered over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Saturday, progresses quickly eastward to off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday with next front diving southeast out of the Plains late in the weekend. A chance of showers and storms return to the forecast Sunday and Monday with temperatures moderating to well above climatology. Temperatures lower back closer to seasonal by Tuesday in the wake of front, which will have surged deep into the Gulf then. /10 && .MARINE...Winds and seas will continue to significantly build as Major Hurricane Michael approaches the Northeast Gulf coast in the near term. Gusty winds in squalls along with rounds of very heavy rain can be expected tonight through Wednesday. Stay tuned for the very latest updates on Major Hurricane Michael. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 85 69 86 56 80 55 83 / 40 50 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 76 83 73 85 60 79 59 81 / 60 80 50 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 82 76 84 63 79 62 80 / 60 100 60 20 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 74 82 71 84 55 78 53 81 / 30 80 60 10 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 71 83 66 80 52 75 52 78 / 20 50 20 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 73 83 69 81 53 75 53 79 / 20 80 60 10 0 0 0 0 Crestview 74 82 71 84 56 79 54 81 / 50 100 60 20 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ056>060-263>266. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ALZ060. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for ALZ265- 266. High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ265-266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ263>266. FL...Hurricane Warning for FLZ201>206. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ205-206. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ202- 204-206. High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ634>636-655-675. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>633-650-670. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob