340 FXUS64 KMOB 091744 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through most of the day with MVFR conditions possible in and around scattered showers. Breezy easterly winds will become northerly on Wednesday. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1118 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. UPDATE...Flash flood watch has also been issued for Covington and Okaloosa counties as these zones will be closest to Hurricane Michael's center of circulation as it makes landfall on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall in a short period of time will be sufficient to cause localized flash flooding in these areas. /10 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1105 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. UPDATE...Hurricane Michael was continuing to strengthen over the Gulf late this morning per latest aircraft recon reports. Michael, centered about 360 miles south of Panama City FL, was tracking northward at 12 mph. The latest forecast track by the National Hurricane Center remains unchanged with Michael expected to make landfall near Panama City FL Wednesday afternoon as a potential major hurricane (Category 3). Some gradual modifications have been made late this AM to the tropical cyclone watches over the local area, namely western portions as forecast cone shrinks and probabilities of wind gusts (tropical cyclone wind gusts have lowered. Elsewhere, no changes. See Watch/Warning/Advisory section below for latest hazard updates. /10 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 750 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 12Z issuance...Expect VFR to MVFR conditions through 10.12z. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through forecast period. Expect gusty easterly winds at 15 to 25 knots today and tonight. Higher gusts from 25 to 40 knots will be possible mainly with some of the stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening. 32/ee PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 703 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms for most locations in the forecast area today and tonight. Breezy to windy conditions, mostly from the east, can be expected, also. For late tonight expect possible Tropical Storm to Hurricane conditions along the coast of Northwest Florida stretching inland generally along and east of the I-65 corridor into Wed. Tropical storm conditions will also be possible further west mainly over the coastal counties of AL generally along and south of the I-10 corridor late tonight. Hurricane Michael is still expected to strengthen today making landfall over the Florida Panhandle generally east of Destin Florida by late Wed. Main impacts from Michael over the forecast area through tonight will be minor coastal flooding generally from 2 to 4 feet above ground level over the western Florida Panhandle and 1 to 2 feet along the Alabama coast. Expect Wind gusts from 20 to 40 mph with most of the stronger thunderstorms with short or brief periods of very heavy rain. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving mostly to the west northwest at 25 to 35 mph. With decent vertical shear noted north of Michael later today and tonight a few isolated tornadoes can't be rule out also, mostly brief and short lived. Highs today will climb to the mid 80s for most locations followed by lows in the lower to middle 70s tonight. 32/ee SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle late on Wednesday as it lifts north then eventually northeast just prior to landfall. Michael will be steered by the flow between a strong upper level ridge along the east coast and western Atlantic waters, and an anomalously deep upper trough over the western states. Michael should remain in a favorable low shear and moist environment, which should allow the hurricane to strengthen to Category 3 intensity at landfall. Hurricane Michael should bring numerous dangerous impacts, especially locations in closest proximity to landfall. The earliest reasonable arrival of Tropical storm force winds will be Tuesday night across coastal sections of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. Tropical storm force winds are most likely by Wednesday morning as Michael moves into our coastal waters. Hurricane force winds are likely by later Wednesday into Wednesday evening across the Florida Panhandle. A dangerous storm surge between 2 and 4 feet above normally dry land will also be possible along the western Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Watch remains in effect. The threat for flooding rainfall appears lower as the storm will be moving quickly northeast across the region. The greatest rainfall amounts should occur across far eastern portions of the region, with 3 to 5 inches possible with isolated higher amounts. Dry antecedent conditions in these locations, with high flash flood guidance values in place, should keep any flood potential localized. We plan to hold off on any Flash Flood Watch at this time. The threat for tropical tornadoes appears to remain mostly to the east of our forecast area. Michael should swiftly move to the northeast later Wednesday night and across the Carolinas by Thursday. A much drier and cooler airmass will sweep in to the region behind the departing hurricane. A return to dry, less humid conditions can be expected along with temperatures returning to near normal values. /JLH LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...High pressure will dominate the area Friday through Saturday night bringing with it a period of cooler, drier weather. Models diverge on the forecast Sunday through the early part of next week. The trend favors weakening the ridge over the area by Sunday so reintroduce isolated to scattered showers Sunday and Monday. A cold frontal passage is possible Monday. /08 MARINE...Expect moderate to strong easterly winds today increasing to tropical storm force with possible gusts to hurricane force tonight and on Wed. The strongest winds will be generally east of Pensacola Florida and offshore to beyond 60nm. Seas will build to 15 feet offshore today and up to 27 feet tonight and during the day on Wed. Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms mostly in the form of squalls today through late Wed night. Conditions will begin to improve after landfall, generally east Destin Fl, early Thu morning. Stay tuned for further updates from the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service in Mobile on Michael. 32/ee && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ060-263>266. Hurricane Watch for ALZ060. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ALZ060. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for ALZ265- 266. High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ265-266. Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ056>059-262. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ263>266. FL...Hurricane Warning for FLZ201>206. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ205-206. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ202- 204-206. High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ634>636-655-675. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>633-650-670. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob