331 FXUS62 KMLB 110801 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 401 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... Today-Tonight...Weakening Tropical Storm Michael continues to push through southern GA/SC and eventually exiting to the mid-Atlc late today into early tomorrow. The driving force of Michael is a weak frontal boundary approaching the Deep South, which will usher in drier air into north FL before the weekend. Currently, a plume of higher moisture associated with Michael extends across the FL peninsula, pushing southward through tonight. Local models in good agreement on a convergence band setting up over the Treasure Coast this afternoon, enhancing coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This moisture is expected to remain south of Orlando/Cape Canaveral, so have slightly lowered PoPs in northern zones to 15-20% with brief showers possible in these areas this morning. Shower and storm activity will quickly dwindle post-sunset as dry air filters in, with only mentionable PoPs south of Cape Canaveral with most remaining offshore in the Treasure Coast marine zones. Above average high temps persist another day, with highs in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. A slight temperature pattern change overnight, however, as lows dip to the mid 70s and even the potential for upper 60s over portions of the northern interior. Friday...As Michael lifts northeast away from the mid Atlantic coast, it will drag a weak frontal trough through east central Florida by about 12z. The models have trended drier and the 00z GFS keeps most precip to our south. MOS guidance shows dew points dropping into the upper 50s across the north and mid 60s central interior. A north/northeast wind trajectory will inhibit surface drying from Canaveral southward though. Will leave a small PoP in the far south, but otherwise go with a dry forecast. Max temps will be held down a few degrees by the northerly flow, so no record highs are expected. Saturday-Wednesday...The front will hang up near Grand Bahama Island and the Florida Straits on Sat as low level winds become northeast. This will confine any small rain chances to southern sections again. Those looking for a taste of the cooler season might find it in northern sections early Sat morning where lows drop into the lower-mid 60s. The boundary and remnant moisture will lift back north on Sunday as high pressure pushes offshore the mid Atlantic coast and winds turn east or east/southeast. This will bring rain chances farther northward into central sections. A high pressure ridge will remain north of the area Mon into Tue and maintain an onshore wind flow. Mid level ridge over the area should limit moisture/instability and keep mainly showery precip chances, except possibly slight afternoon thunder chances inland. On Wed, the GFS shows the axis of a deep layer ridge over the area providing limited moisture. MOS PoPs are 20% or less but have kept values up to 30% to maintain some continuity with the previous forecast. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR with MVFR cigs prior to sunrise for KLEE/KISM/KSFB/KMCO. S flow becomes predominantly SW/W through midday Thurs as TS Michael pushes north. Convergence band likely to set up in the afternoon for southern terminals, thus VCSH after 17Z for KVRB southward. && .MARINE... Today-Tonight...Beach and boating conditions continue to improve today as Tropical Storm Michael gains latitude toward the Mid-Atlc. SSW winds veer slightly SW, quickly diminishing from 15-20 kts to 10- 15 kts by mid afternoon. Seas follow suit, with the initial 6-7 ft swell in northern offshore zones becoming 3-4 ft. A Small Craft Advisory for offshore waters north of Sebastian will expire this afternoon as Michael quickly moves north. A descending moisture plume will leave higher rain chances south of Cape Canaveral through this evening. Fri/Weekend/Mon...A weak front will settle to the northern Bahamas and south Florida by early Fri, then hang up there Sat as a high pressure center moves to the mid Atlantic coast. The boundary will lift back to the north Sun as the high pushes offshore. Light northerly winds are indicated Fri, then turning northeast Sat, east on Sun and southeast Mon. Speeds will be around 10 knots except up to 10-15 knots at times offshore. Seas generally 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet offshore. The chance for showers will be low Fri-Sat and confined to the southern waters, then increase a bit Sun across southern/central waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 73 86 70 / 20 10 0 0 MCO 91 72 91 68 / 20 10 10 0 MLB 89 75 90 74 / 40 20 10 0 VRB 89 74 90 73 / 40 30 10 20 LEE 91 71 90 66 / 20 10 0 0 SFB 91 72 90 68 / 20 10 0 0 ORL 91 73 90 69 / 20 10 10 0 FPR 89 74 89 72 / 40 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM....Lascody